May 22, 2014

Horse 1679 - Charity That Costs Nothing


At midnight last night, my weekly MyMulti 3 ticket expired; not that there's anything particularly interesting about that but what I propose to do is to perform an experiment.

Could I give away a free ticket?
It was a Wednesday night. I didn't need it anymore and whoever I'd gave it to would have had virtually unlimited¹ travel until 4am the next day. Let me just reiterate that... virtually UNLIMITED¹ travel.

I think that in our world where we constantly have to work for just about everything, where we're almost on treadmill of drudgery, the idea that anyone would dare to give us anything for free is a little strange.
I think that there must be thousands of little opportunities like these. Like me, there must be thousands upon thousands of people who get off the train at the end of the week who could pass their tickets on to someone else. How about that time left over in a car space where you still have time on the ticket? How about even mowing someone else's nature strip? There must be thousands of opportunities where the chance to perform some act of charity for virtually zero cost must exist.

Thanks largely to the society which we've designed for ourselves, hiding behind the walls of fancy iDevices, in which community has been torn in shreds, where people don't really speak to their neighbours any more and where everything has been reduced to a quantifiable price, Charity has become just one of those things that we think of where we have to give money to someone; yet we don't often think about donating time, or in the case of unexpired tickets, something which literally² doesn't cost us anything.
I think it odd that of the Christian triple of faith hope and charity (pistis, elpis and agape), two of those are functionally virtues in Greek whereas the third agape is a practice. Charity which is derived from the Latin word "caritas" implies a sense of preciousness but it doesn't then imply a sense of expensiveness.
I'm re-reading though sections of Plato's "The Republic" in which he sets forth his idea for a perfect society of sorts and he suggests that the agape of the governing classes should involve self-controlled and rational decisions for the masses. Charity for Plato doesn't even necessarily mean the giving of money but even the mere act of the governing classes speaking to the ruled, in the forum is seen as an act of charity (something which our current leaders and business rulers are loathed to do). I suppose that the modern equivalent would be a conversation over a cup or tea, or at a coffee shop or down at the pub. Charity in this case, is about a conversation and making a connection with people in the third place³.
Agape in normal koine Greek though, takes on a more straightforward meaning. Agape as it was normally used in Greek denotes an intent to promote well-being in others, even if there is no expected return.

I didn't honestly expect any return for giving away my MyMulti 3 ticket except the knowledge that the person who got it, would get a benefit that they were not expecting and because it cost me literally nothing to do, I hoped that they would then go on and be generous to someone else with the money that they saved.
In the end, I did give away my MyMulti 3 ticket to the one person who I saw coming down the stairs to the train station. They duly thanked me and I hope that my rather pathetic act of charity which quite literally cost me nothing, was contagious.

¹except entry to Domestic and International stations, though curiously they could go to the airport by bus.
²literally literally, not metaphorically literally
³for more on the "third place", Ray Oldenburg's book "The Great Good Place" (1989) is the seminal starting point for this concept.

May 21, 2014

Horse 1678 - Deregulation of University Fees - A Bad Thing

One of the few investments that a society can make which is absolutely guaranteed to turn a profit is the education of its citizenry. Education people is something which improves one of the four factors of production and whilst land may be improved through better techniques and technology (and in some cases, the demand for new resources previously thought useless*), capital and enterprise can not.
Furthermore, university graduates earn roughly 27% more on average than people who never went to university. That extra 27% income over a lifetime, more than easily makes up for and pays back the costs of education; which on a whole of life survey is actually a pretty good reason why all education in my opinion should be entirely free to the end user.

It can be very easily argued for instance that widespread literacy as a result of offering even a basic education to all between 1890-1920 lifted millions out of poverty; and the vastly increased incidence of university educated people from the 1940s onwards, led to the current technological revolution which we find ourselves currently living in. On top of that, university education in particular is perhaps the greatest single contributor to social mobility yet invented.
For these reasons, I think that the current policy announced in the 2014/15 budget to allow the deregulation of university fees and to allow the universities to charge whatever they like, is possibly the single most destructive education policy ever seen in the history of the Commonwealth of Australia.

Market forces are extremely efficient at finding one thing only - price. Market forces are perfectly fine when it comes to things like commodities or consumer goods where the goods and services are interchangeable - it doesn't really matter for instance what brand of petrol that you put in a car; it doesn't really matter that the price of one can of tomato soup is more expensive that another. However, just because market forces are efficient at establishing price levels, it does not imply that they are the best mechanism for establishing what is best for society.
I don't think that education is one area where the market forces work in the best interests of the country as a whole. It very much acts in the best interests of those people who which to see social class enforced. Like health care, no-one chooses of their own volition to get sick and I argue that it is impossible to choose our parents’ socio-economic status.

Deregulation of university fees would most likely have the immediate effect of a massive shift in the supply curve of university places to the left; a new equilibrium position would be found, such that universities' profits are maximised. That sounds fine and good until you realise that a shift to the left in the supply curve, forces the equilibrium position upwards and the price goes up.
University students by themselves do not have a very large pool of capital upon which they can draw to pay for university fees. An increase in university fees has one of two effects:
1. Either it forces the students to take on debt; which they might have hanging over them for years.
2. Students from higher-socio economic backgrounds have their fees paid for by their parents, which means that in the mean time, due to things like capital accumulation and wealth condensation, those people remain richer and the whole process actually accelerates wealth inequality.

Deregulation of university fees actually helps to enforce class structure in society and by locking out some potential students altogether, condemns them to a life with reduced social mobility. If you want to see the results of this experiment, look no further than the United States or the United Kingdom which are so class entrenched that if someone's ancestors went to university 300 years ago, then they stand a far better chance of going to university today.

In 1974, the Whitlam Government passed legislation which made university fees and education completely free for students. In 1989, Hawke Government set up the Higher Education Contributions Scheme which re-introduced university fees and the last group of students who benefited from free education were those who were born in 1971.
In the time-frame from 1974-1989, the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, the Treasurer, Joe Hockey and the Minister for Education, Christopher Pyne all went to university for free. Free! Yet here they are, in 2014 as responsible Ministers of the Crown have decided to pull the drawbridge up behind them.

As a taxpayer, I don't mind paying for people to go to university. The smart ones will learn things which will go on to make life better for everyone; those people who study the humanities which supposedly don't return a financial gain, go on to be more interesting people; even the people who don't go on to complete university studies will have learned something. All of them will have had the quality of their labour improved. In the case of TAFEs, Colleges, Apprenticeships, Traineeships, their labour is improved directly.
I suppose that basically I am more or less selfish because deep down, I don't want to live in a country full of uneducated people. I don't want to live in an economy where the only thing that determines where you end up in life, is where you started.
I don't see how throwing education to the forces of the market, improves society. I think that it defiles the premise of the Legislative powerr of the Parliament as defined in Section 51 of the Constitution which is to make laws for the peace, order, and good government of the Commonwealth and thus... a bad thing.

*Crude Oil for instance was a pretty well pointless thing until the invention of refining, petroleum usage and the invention of plastics.

May 20, 2014

Horse 1677 - I Hate Offshore Processing

One thing that has stayed with me even from as a small child was a piece advice that my mum gave me: never say that you "hate" someone or something unless you actually want them to die. "Hate" is therefore a word which I don't like to use very often; so when I do, I'd better have a pretty good reason for doing so.
I want to say that I hate offshore processing of asylum seekers. I hate it. I wish it were "dead, buried and cremated", to use the words of our current Prime Minister.

Whilst I was still working for the Commonwealth Reporting Service and sitting in the courtroom behind banks of audio gear in both the Federal Magistrates and Federal Courts, the sorts of cases which I'd usually be recording were those in which the appellant had already applied for asylum and been rejected by lower courts. When they got to the Federal Courts, they were appealing on the basis of the a mis-operation of law and by that stage, the vast bulk of them failed.
It still doesn't change the fact though, that many of these people had braved horrible conditions to even get to Australia and that once they were here, they were hanging on to what little hope they had left.
In lower courts though (which I didn't record terribly many of), asylum seekers quite often were granted asylum, and the expressions of utter joy which flooded their faces are something which I will not forget for a long time.

This explains in part why I utterly hate offshore processing. Hate it. Wish it were stopped entirely. For people who have risked practically everything they have; only to be turned away by Australia and without the hope of being processed; thus without even the possibility of having their claim for asylum properly addressed and heard in court, I see as an affront to decency; an affront to justice and affront to humanity and compassion.
(See Horse 1126 and Horse 1630)

When The General Assembly of the United Nations met in December of 1950, Australia was one of the twenty-six nations which signed up to the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees (and eventually ratified it in 1951). I think that by "stopping the boats" and preventing refugees from even reaching Australia to be assessed under due process, Australia shows utter contempt for the Conventions which it supposedly stands for:
A refugee shall have free access to the courts of law on the territory of all Contracting States.
- Article 16.1, Convention relating to the Status of Refugees 1951
http://unhcr.org.au/unhcr/images/convention%20and%20protocol.pdf

How is it possible that someone who doesn't even arrive in Australia, can even have free access a court of law? It is the nation of Australia openly declaring to the world that it is determined not to be just.
Australia even likes to stand behind the razor wired fence that is the United Nations Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea and Air (2004) and likes to use that very protocol as a blunt baton; smacking down any obligations that it might have under the 1951 Refugee Convention. In addition to this, Australia also likes to use Section 5AA of this Migration Act 1958 as another blunt baton

Meaing of unauthorised maritime arrival
(1)  For the purposes of this Act, a person is an unauthorised maritime arrival if:
(a) the person entered Australia by sea:
(i)  at an excised offshore place at any time after the excision time for that place; or
(ii)  at any other place at any time on or after the commencement of this section; and
(b)  the person became an unlawful non-citizen because of that entry; and
(c)  the person is not an excluded maritime arrival.
- Section 5AA, Migration Act 1958.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma1958118/s5aa.html

Just because something is legal, doesn't mean that it is just, decent or compassionate. Pooh to Section 5AA of the Migration Act 1958. Pooh to it with highly polished brass knobs on. I can see the reasons behind Section 5AA and although I don't know if I hate it, I hate the way that it is used.

Further to this, Australia likes to brush off people to places like Papua New Guinea or Nauru (and now is trying to do the same with Cambodia) even though those countries are often ill-equipped to handle in influx of people.

"What decent government would send boat people to a country where they could be exposed to caning? Malaysia is a friend of Australia, but their standards are not our standards - and it is very wrong of Australia to send people who have come into our care, however briefly, to a country whose standards are so different from ours".
- Tony Abbott*, as quoted in The Age, 14 Sep 2011.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/malaysia-deal-not-on-abbott-20110913-1k7vd.html#ixzz2ulftXt8X

Yet again I ask, what decent government would send boat people to a country where they could be exposed to makeshift weapons wielded by private security firms which are under the employ of the government? What decent government would send boat people to a country which the per capita GDP is less than half the average weekly wage in this country?

Well this one apparantly:
The Abbott government wants to send some asylum seekers from Australian to Cambodia at a time the country's strongman Prime Minister Hun Sen is overseeing a brutal crackdown on dissent in one south-east Asia's poorest nations.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/julie-bishop-floats-plan-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-cambodia-20140223-33alq.html

Hate is a strong word to use but in this case, I don't think that it's even adequate. I hate offshore processing and would prefer that all of Australia's sattelite processing centres were shut down immediately and that Australia would move to an exclusinvely onshore processing system only.
I would prefer to see that Australia executes justice for the refugees, the orphans and the widows, and shows compassion for the aliens by giving them food, clothing, and maybe even hope and a future.

*Arrived in Australia on the SS Oronsay on 7th Sep 1960... as a boat person.
http://search.findmypast.co.uk/results/world-records/passenger-lists-leaving-uk-1890-1960?lastname=abbott&yearofbirth=1957&yearofbirth_offset=2&shipname=oronsay

May 15, 2014

Horse 1676 - Pandigital Numbers and the Divisibility Test

WARNING - MATHS AHEAD!

Following on from the last post about sudoku, a though hit me that every single line and column of a sudoku because they always contain the numbers 1-9, must always tally to 45. This led me to a rather strange sort of conclusion.
Every 9-digit and 10-digit pandigital number (that is, a number that uses all of the digits) must have a digit sum of 45. Also as a result of this, they must all be divisible by 9 since one of the handy divisibility tests is that a the digit sum of any multiple of 9 is also divisible by 9.

Pick any pandigital number:
832,974,156
8 + 3 + 2 + 9 + 7 + 4 + 1 + 5 + 6 = 45
4 + 5 = 9
9 is one less than 10.

Try it yourself. Pick any number you like, multiply it by 9 and see what you get. For example:

11861 * 9 = 106,749
1 + 0 + 6 + 7 + 4 + 9 = 27
2 + 7 = 9
9 is one less than 10 (base-10).

Spin out!

It also stands to reason that any pandigital number either added to or subtracted from another pandigital number must leave a result which is also also divisible by 9 because addition is commutative.

To wit:
527,148,936 - 483,269,517 = 43,879,419
4 + 3 + 8 + 7 + 9 + 4 + 1 + 9 = 45
4 + 5 = 9
9 is one less than 10 (base-10).

Even More spin out!

There must be something even more fundamental going on below the surface; something weirder. I don't believe that there can be anything specifically unique about the number 9 because the divisibility test also works for 3.

229, 167 * 3 = 687,501
6 + 8 + 7 + 5 + 0 + 1 = 27
2 + 7 = 9
9 is one less than 10 (base-10).

9? is 3²

Found you. Thought you could sneak away could you?

For base-10, 10 is 9 + 1. 10 is also 3²+1. The general rule if it exists must be that for a given base n, the divisibility test must work for all n-1's to some power x.

Make the whole thing smaller. Lets pick... I dunno... 6 as the base and add up the digits of a pandigital number in base-6.

251,340
2 + 5 + 1 + 3 + 4 + 0 = 23
2 + 3 = 5
5 is one less than 10 (base-6).

Don't understand? That's probably because you're thinking in base-10 land. 
The number 10 is actually: 1*10¹ + 0*10°. 10 in base-10 is one-ten and zero-units.
The number 23 in base 6 is actually: 2*6¹ + 2*6°. 23 in base six is two-sixes and three-units.

How about base-12?
We're going to need some new symbols. How about X for ten (because we're Roman) and E for eleven. We've been here before (See Horse 785 (or in base-10 1109))

508,E67,41X,239
5 + 0 + 8 + E + 6 + 7 + 4 + 1 + X + 2 + 3 + 9 = 56
5 + 6 = E
E is one less than 10 (base-12).

Just to make sure of this:
5973 * E = 32033
3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 3 = E
E is one less than 10 (base-12).

Bringing this all together. 

My conjecture, if it isn't already a proven fact is that for any given base-n, the multiples of any given number n-1, must also add up to a multiple of n-1. Likewise since pandigital numbers which use every digit once, always are a multiple of n-1, then they too with have a digit sum of some multiple of n-1.

So then for base-36:
A = 10, B = 11, C = 12, D = 13... until I ran out of normal characters.

One pandigital number at random is
RIC,2HQ,59P,AF4,7OE,GSU,NBJ,M3D,LX1,6TW,Z80,VYK (which by the way is 10,700,559,216,665,253,478,593,063,215,400,573,113,142,093,263,213,829,432,580,898,768,839,245,824 in base-10)

Then the sum of the digits is...
R + I + C + 2 + H + Q + 5 + 9 + P + A + F + 4 + 7 + O + E + G + S + U + N + B + J + M + 3 + D + L + X + 1 + 6 + T + W + Z + 8 + 0 + V + Y = HI
H + I = Z
Z is one less than 10 (base-36).
Or in base 10... 17 + 18 = 35.

AHAH!
Huzzah, huzzah, Have I just won the game of maths? I hope so. My brain hurts.

May 14, 2014

Horse 1675 - How Hard Can Sudoku Be?

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/column-8/column-8-20140513-zrb0n.html
This one just makes Column 8’s head hurt – make of it what you will. Greg Foster, of Canberra, enquires: ‘‘A sudoku puzzle that only has one square filled in must be easy to complete, and a sudoku puzzle that has only one square blank is also easy to complete, but how many blanks are needed before it becomes difficult?’’
- Column 8, Sydney Morning Herald, 14th May 2014.

Dr Karl on Science on Mornings, on the ABC's youth network Triple J, often likes to tell us that in some cases a Nobel prize for science isn't awarded for solving a problem but asking a question. In this example posed by Column 8 the question is almost the reverse of what you'd expect but nevertheless, probably has a discrete solution.

It turns out (and it took the best of 11 months of computer checking by University College Dublin) that the minimum number of clues required to make a meaningful sudoku with a single solution is 17. There are just over six and a half hexillion¹ possible arrangements of all the 9 numbers in a sudoku but many of those are either copies of each other where numbers substitute for other ones, or arrangements where whole 3x3 sections are merely translated about the board.
It you eliminate sets which are otherwise symmetrical or equivalent with each other, then this falls to a
mere 5 billion².

The question posed by column 8 though it slightly different. It wants to know how many blanks are required. I suspect (though I'm not really prepared to set up a computer to check for 11 months to find out) that the answer can be found using nothing more than applied logic.

http://www.sudoku-help.com/SHD-Ratings.htm
I have seen the Sudoku-Help Difficulty (SHD) Rating by Greg Shalless in the newspaper before and have often thought that it was delightfully trivial. Oscar Wilde once said that "It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless information" and to be honest, it is the useless and often trivial which are so very very paradoxically wonderful.
The key part of the question in Column 8 is this phrase: "how many blanks are needed before it becomes difficult?" Now usually when you ask about the difficulty of something, it's not easy to determine but Mr Shalless' rating system provides that the bare minimum rating for something "difficult" is 79.

I suspect that the way to do this is to start with a valid board and work backwards. If it were possible to generate a board with a set of Hidden Quads, that spawned another set of Hidden Quads, that spawned yet another set of Hidden Quads and then a fourth, and each of those four sets in turn generated Locked Triples and Locked Quads, then provided there was a "free" set of independent Locked Triples, then then minimum number of blanks required would only be 19 to generate a difficulty rating of 79.
Such an arrangement would require drill downs on at least three levels for most of the blanks before you arrived at a solution. Incidentally, testing this with GNOME Sudoku generator, yields at best 24 blanks³.

There would be a real symmetry if the number of blanks needed before a sudoku becomes difficult was also 17 but that kind of depends on what an actual definition of what "difficult" actually is.

Addenda:
The smallest number of blanks where there is something solvable is 3. In that case there'd be an Only Spot Box and a Linked Pair.
The smallest number of blanks I think that it takes to be interesting is 5; which could either be a pair of Linked Pairs and an Only Spot Box or a Linked Quad and an Only Spot Box.
The smallest number of blanks that I've found that qualifies for a "Novice" level is 12 but that would require a series of nested Linked Quads and Hidden Quads; neither of which would usually appear in a Novice Sudoku.

¹Actually 6,670,903,752,021,072,936,960 to be precise.
²Actually 5,472,730,538.
³http://sourceforge.net/projects/gnome-sudoku/

Horse 1674 - When To Write Off Liverpool's Season - Hope and Expectation

http://rollo75.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/horse-1354-when-to-write-off-liverpools.html
My blog has for a very long time been marked on a sort of annual basis with lamentory posts marking the end a of Liverpool's season, or rather the point when I write off the title as unwinnable yet again.
- Horse 1354, 24th Aug, 2012

http://rollo75.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/horse-1611-10-points-to-oblivion-and.html
Long time readers will note that I write Liverpool's season off as a non-event once they fall behind 10 points of the league leaders. The earliest that I've written the season off is in September and the latest that I ever wrote the season off was in the 91st minute of the very last game of the year.
- Horse 1611, 4th Feb 2014

Well... that was disappointing for the 24th consecutive time. Sunday night (Monday morning) though was one of the more difficult write-offs because it actually did get down to the last half hour of the season.
As stated above, I'd usually write-off a season once Liverpool fall 10 points behind the leaders but for season 2013-14 that never actually happened. Mathematically Liverpool could have still won the title yesterday but two conditions had to be met:
- West Ham United HAD to have beaten Manchester City, which was always going to be a monumental task.
- Liverpool HAD to have beaten Newcastle United, which wasn't from the outset that difficult.

When Martin Skrtel stuck his leg out to try and stop a Yoan Gouffran cross from finding Shola Ameobi in the 20th minute, it would have been a brilliant goal... at the other end. At that point the pendulum swung further away from Liverpool and you could see them all go flat. At that single moment, it was as though the title hopes evaporated (which it would later do that afternoon anyway). This was made even worse when the Kop went silent just before half time, as news filtered in that Manchester City had scored.
Not long after the half time break, news of Vincent Kompany's goal at the City of Manchester ground, pretty much broke the spirits of Liverpool and it wasn't until Daniel Agger gained a yard of pace on Mathieu Debuchy and scored an equaliser. Daniel Sturridge doubled the score less than two minutes later from a dead ball in an almost identical spot.

At what point did I finally write off Liverpool's season? When Kompany scored? Well not really. I think that it was probably about the 81st minute that I finally reached that point; holding on to the little hope that West Ham might score 3 goals but those never came.
When Manchester City went 2-0 up yesterday, Liverpool's hope in winning the Premier League was trampled; destroyed; gone. I probably have been a Liverpool fan for the best part of three and a half decades but even I know that the reasonable expectation of winning a league title is only a temporary thing, as it can only ever be.

All of this serves to illustrate something quite important about an important but often fleeting concept, hope. Hope is defined by the OED as the expectation of an event or a thing happening. Also note that hope doesn't have to be blind but may be placed in something entirely reasonable. I for instance have a fairly reasonable hope that I'll be paid on Friday. My hope is backed up with action, in that I keep on turning up and doing work; even if the actual work itself might be at times, incredibly difficult or at the other extreme, mentally dull.
The idea of hope often finds it's way into everyday life, even though we're probably either too tired, too angry or too apathetic to even notice it hiding underneath the wallpaper of existence. Even looking at the news bulletin, you'll find the concept of hope, trapped underneath the frenzied details of something else.
Before an election, political parties will hold out the hope that they will somehow make things better through governmental policy. Advertisers hold out all sorts of hope when they try and sell us goods and services; with promises of happiness and fulfilment. Advertisers hold out hope with the absolutely naked desire that people will buy what they are selling.
Of course the opposite is equally true. People without hope, or who perceive that they have no hope, often plunge into the very dark depths of pointlessness and futility, and might even find themselves in depression or ennui.

Hope it seems is an equally difficult concept in the bible to pin down. Although it is written about, it isn't always obvious as to why hope is important:
Yes, and I will continue to rejoice, for I know that through your prayers and God’s provision of the Spirit of Jesus Christ what has happened to me will turn out for my deliverance. I eagerly expect and hope that I will in no way be ashamed, but will have sufficient courage so that now as always Christ will be exalted in my body, whether by life or by death. For to me, to live is Christ and to die is gain.
- Philippians 1:19-20

Ignore this if you like but even if you think that Christianity and the entire of organised religion is a waste of time, hear me out. Hope is the expectation of an event or a thing. As a result of an expectation, people make plans and investments of money, time and effort; that's equally true in the financial sector as it is the rest of life. I don't want to destroy any mystery which you might purport to have but that's all hope is, and it is true for every single context.
Some people might put their hope in their job, or their family, or Christ, or happiness, whatever it might be. Hope creates a mindset, that mindset underpins people's intentions and defines people's responses to life itself.
Actually it's really curious: hope in a Christian context usually frames a set of responses to life in which people aren't as preoccupied with being anxious about the future. Without the mindset of constantly requiring to look out for number one, there is a great deal more self-sacrifice amongst Christian communities. Hope frees people from seeing the obstacles in front of us as insurmountable and Christians themselves are less engaged in self-preservation and self-enhancement.
The expectation that God himself isn't angry at you because the offence that you have caused him has been dealt with in the person of Jesus, has certainly changed people's mindset and even the course of history.

Set that aside though, and you can even see people's hopes manifest themselves as the stock market fluctuates and fortunes are made and dissolved in minutes:
Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.
- John Maynard Keynes, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936)

This might sound crazy but the level of investment, sometimes expressed through things like the Investor Confidence Index or even private spending which is measured with the Consumer Confidence Index are in effect nothing more than numerical indicators of precisely the same concept - hope. Investors obviously expect to gain rewards for placing their investments and they act accordingly. Consumers also act according upon the basis of their hopes and generally we find that in times where economic hope is less abundant, they pull back their spending on luxury items.

For the 24th consecutive time my hopes that Liverpool would again win the league title were dashed to pieces like pottery. My whinge is that the phrase "there's always next season" is qualified by the unstated "there's never this season". Hope though, always holds itself out, with the expectation of things to come.

Hope springs eternal in the human breast;
Man never is, but always to be blessed:
The soul, uneasy and confined from home,
Rests and expatiates in a life to come.
– Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man (1734)

May 13, 2014

Horse 1673 - On Raising the Drinking Age to 21

One of the nice things about having a blog like Horse is that sometimes people ask me to write about some particular topic. This is one of those.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/calls-for-drinking-age-to-be-raised-to-21-20140512-zraj6.html
Pressure is mounting for Australian governments to raise the legal drinking age to 21 to protect the health of young people whose brains are still vulnerable to the toxicity of alcohol at 18, leading health experts say. 
Four professors of mental health and public health have joined a growing list of influential Australians to call for a new legal drinking age that would bring Australia in line with the US where people cannot buy alcohol until they are 21.
They say raising the age limit would protect young people from the brain damage that can be caused by too much alcohol and the harms associated with being drunk, such as car accidents and violence.  
- Sydney Morning Herald, 12th May 2014

I think that when I was asked to write about this, that the person expected me to write about the issues of alcohol fuelled violence. I also suspect that they wanted me to cite that annoying problem that prohibition in the United States actually worked really well.
Death rates due to cirrhosis more than halved and admissions to mental institutes also more than halved during the period.
Violent Crime rates however, neither decreased nor increased dramatically. Organised Crime became more visible and was even lionised during the period but organised crime existed both before, during and after the period.

Do I agree then with raising the drinking age to 21? No, not at all. The weird thing is that crime rates and public health benefits don't really move me on this subject either. It is fitting that this question be asked particularly this year too, the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War One.
Huh? What does that have to do with anything? Let me explain.

In 1914 the drinking age was 21 in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and Western Australia. In New South Wales though, it gets complicated. Under the Colonial Laws Validity Act (1865), laws passed in the British parliament, had legal force in the colonies until separate legislation in those colonies changed the provisions. New South Wales had made no provisions for the drinking age and by default, it remained at 16 (though licensing laws began to restrict the opening hours of premises).

In 1914 though, people aged 18 (and in some cases younger, if they had lied about their age) could find themselves on the other side of the world, in trenches and with a rifle in their hand, facing their counterparts who were also aged 18 (and younger) with a rifle in their hand. More than 60,000 Australian soldiers would lay dead by the war's end; with 137,000 wounded.
Soldiers in the armed forces were rationed two ounces of rum per day.

The reason why I make mention of this is that during World War Two, conscription came into force and was again brought in for both the Korean and Vietnam Wars.
The voting age was lowered in 1973 after outrage that it was possible that a person could be conscripted and die for the country but didn't have a say in the government which sent them there.

18 in Australia is the age of majority. At that age, people have the right to vote, the ability to be tried and sentenced in the courts as an adult, the right to sue and be sued and as it currently stands, the ability to buy tobacco products and alcohol.
Given our historical readiness to go to wars that really are none of our business and our past performance to pass acts of parliament to send people to war, by raising the drinking age to 21, are we saying that people are good enough to be blown to pieces for their country but not good enough for the privileges therein?
If we do raise the drinking age to 21, what about the voting age? Clearly someone who isn't deemed legally responsible to handle alcohol, why should they have the right to vote? Should we also raise the ages for ability to be tried and sentenced and the right to enter legal contracts?

These sorts of questions were asked when the national drinking age was lowered to 18 and standardised across the nation in the 1970s . I'm not saying that they aren't sensible questions to be asking in the 1970s. But haven't we asked these questions before?

In New Zealand that general age is 20; it's also the case in Japan. The drinking age across Europe is usually either 16 or 18 and in Germany it can be 14 in some cases. In all of those places except the UK, the rates of bodily harm are lower; and so if raising the drinking age has any merit, then I don't know how that's reconciled.

The other thing I think of when I read a story like this is that I'm 35 years old and any change in the legislation isn't really going to affect me even an iota. I suspect that's probably also true for the vast majority of politicians who would be debating the relative merits of change if legislation to change the drinking age were presented before parliaments.
Maybe there is a alcohol problem but surely that's more of a matter of underlying culture. I do know that a government which wanted to change the legislation though, would suddenly find itself the subject of a lof of 18-21 year olds who have the power to vote them out.
Again we come back to the idea of laws being made on behalf of people without terribly much of their feedback if any and that more than anything else about this irks me.
If people are good enough to be blown to pieces for their country, shouldn't we at very least, ask them about how they feel about the issues which affect them?

Addenda:
The person who asked me to write about this, didn't like the post. "Young people don't know what's good for them; and you can quote me on that"... so I did.

May 10, 2014

Horse 1672 - The Problem With "The Problem With God"

I'm reading a book at the moment by a professor of political philosophy at Reed College, Oregon, a Mr Peter J Steinberger; entitled "The Problem With God: Why Atheists, True Believers and Even Agnostics Must All Be Wrong" (2013).
Whilst I am finding the book entertaining, being written rather like a a good Jewish argument, I think that it fails on the grounds that although the conclusion is valid, the conclusion is drawn from from false principles.

1. It is impossible - literally impossible - for us to imagine anything existing in the world that wasn't caused to exist by something else. (page 6)
Steinberger labours this point quite strongly. The argument is along the lines of, every effect has a cause like a string of Dominoes; that first domino that moved must have been caused to move by some other thing which caused it to move; that thing (which is the new First Thing), that moved must have been caused to move by some other thing which caused it to move... etc etc etc ad infinitum.
Therefore the idea that God either does or doesn't exist can not be a proper concept.

There's a problem with this:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-virtual-particles-rea/
Are virtual particles really constantly popping in and out of existence? Or are they merely a mathematical bookkeeping device for quantum mechanics?
Virtual particles are indeed real particles. Quantum theory predicts that every particle spends some time as a combination of other particles in all possible ways. These predictions are very well understood and tested.
- Scientific American, 9th Oct 2006

Thanks to some of the conclusions of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in the realm of quantum physics, the conclusion is that not only are particles existing and not existing, that particles are coming into and out of existence all the time but that some particles even appear to travel backwards through time; and are destroyed before they are created.

Is it impossible to imagine anything existing in the world that wasn't caused to exist by something else?Science says that not only is it possible but is happening literally all of the time. Quantum Physics suggests that at an elementary particle level, cause and existence might well be completely irrelevant.

In roughly the same way, there is not and can never be, a concept of God. We can never have the idea of a world that didn't have a beginning. Something must have started everything - a First Thing, an Unmoved Mover. (page 52)
Mathematics throws up the idea of infinities all the time. Most of us will remember basic high school trigonometry.
In a right angled triangle, the tangent function gets larger and larger as the opposite side to the angle in question gets longer and longer. A triangle of angles 89° and 1° will be a very very long skinny thing indeed; at angles bigger than 89° though, it just gets longer and skinnier. When you get to 90° though, what other angle completes the triangle? Well none really. It's mathematically impossible. Two 90° angles creates parallel lines which never meet and thus the opposite side stretches all the way into infinity.
Infinity then, is not a concept that we have a problem with. On top of that, even differing degrees of infinity is not a concept that we have a problem with.

To demonstrate this, let's take a short drive down a winding road to Hilbert's Grand Hotel.
Suppose that you have a Grand Hotel with an infinite number of rooms. All of the rooms are currently filled by an infinite number of people, who are having an infinite amount of fun at an infinite expensive party for mathematicians (in truth though, mathematicians do not have that much fun). A late running guest shows up and has to be put into a room. Then what? The solution, is to have the person in Room 1 move to Room 2, the person in Room 2 move to Room 3, et cetera and ad nauseum to infinity.
Suppose then that another party begins for an infinite number of physicists who show up in an infinite amount of taxi cabs. Then what? One solution might be to have all of the people mathematicians to a room which has a number twice that of their original room number. Then all of the mathematicians would be in even numbered rooms and all of the physicists would be in odd numbered rooms. Simple.
What now? The second infinity described must be functionally twice as big as the first infinity. Degrees of magnitude of infinity is also not a concept that we have a problem with.

Why then does Steinberger have a problem with the concept of something which has always existed. On a timescale, of we supposed that right now is time 0, then that would mean that God might have existed from time -∞. Time would begin at some -x relative to now.
The first word in the Hebrew Tanakh (and the Torah) is the word בְּ רֵ אשִׁ ית or "Bereshit" which means "the Beginning". I find no problem in the idea that a thing doesn't have to have an initial cause. Elementary particles come in and out of existence all the time; without initial causes; so the idea that there was a something which must have started everything, a First Thing; an Unmoved Mover, seems perfectly logical and valid to me.
What is so logically difficult to accept about an Unmoved Mover which existed from time -∞? Things which always existed from even before the existence of time itself (in so far as much as time is a subordinate dimension) aren't a logically impossible construct; so the idea that "we can never have the idea of a world that didn't have a beginning" is also not impossible. It's also not impossible that a being might have existed without a beginning either.

2. To talk about God is to talk about something that cannot possibly exist and, at the same time, absolutely must exist. But we cannot have the idea of something that both exists and doesn't exist at the same. There's no such concept. So to ask if that concept which is not a concept at all, describes anything in the world, is to ask a non-question. There's no concept about which to ask. (page 74)
The problem with defining God as an "it" and as something which is both possible and impossible at the same time, Steinberger thinks is an invalid conclusion. I wonder though, if that in itself defies reality.

To wit: Theism is the proposition that God/s exist and presumably from this a priori position, everything else must follow.
Atheism (thanks to the Greek "a-" which negates an idea) is the proposition that God/s do not exist and presumably from this a priori position, everything else must follow.
In both viewpoints, there is a distinct problem in trying to disprove the positions but virtue of the fact that the person who holds either of these viewpoints, will deny the evidence which is contrary to their a priori standpoint. This then becomes a matter of acceptability of evidence rather than trying to prove of disprove a concept.
If both viewpoints are fundamentally flawed as Steinberger suggests then I don't even know what road he finds himself on. Yet strangely, it's also not true that "we cannot have the idea of something that both exists and doesn't exist at the same". There is such a concept and like all good concepts on the internet, it involves cat pictures.

Erwin Schrödinger was an Austrian physicist whose most famous picture is that of a cat in a thought experiment.
Suppose you were to put a cat (yeah, I know it could have been a dog or a moose or a cow (and scientists really love cows (and this is the third set of nested parenthesis))), into a bunker with a beaker filled poisonous gas and precariously balanced on the edge of table, such that it could fall over at any moment. If the bottle falls over and shatters, thus releasing the gas, then that poisonous gas has a 50% chance to kill the cat within one minute. 50% of the time, then it's "no more scratching post" for Mr Kitty and the other 50% of the time, Mr Kitty is free to live out his wee kitty life.
The thing is though that after one minute, the cat has either two conditions - dead or alive. There isn't really any other choice. Repeat the experiment often enough and half the time you have a dead kitty; the other half of the time, kitty lives. Get it? Got it? Good.

The thing is that from a quantum position, before we look, the cat is in what's known as a "superposition", that is that it's theoretically possible for Mr Kitty to be both dead or alive at the same time until observed. The act of observation itself, forces reality to decide for us. The thing is though, that inside the bunker, the cat either sees the beaker or poisonous gas shatter or it doesn't. There is no half way house option there either.
Schrödinger says that not only does our act of observation have a bearing on whether or not Mr Kitty lives or dies but also that Mr Kitty's reality is "entangled" with the outcome of the experiment. It is our act of observation that forces reality to show its cards.
Then again, who watches us to decide whether or not we look at the cat inside the bunker who is either dead or alive. Does outside observation force reality there as well?
Guess what? It turns out that this is one of those things about which science itself has no answer for. It's not that it asks a non question, but that reality itself must warp around something. Paradoxes like this exist everywhere in science. Denying the concept seems pretty foolhardy to me and just avoids asking the question.

The thing I like about these sort of paradoxes, is that the Bible in places doesn't avoid them. It lays out in plain text, that the paradox exists and the consequences therein:
If there is no resurrection of the dead, then not even Christ has been raised. And if Christ has not been raised, our preaching is useless and so is your faith. More than that, we are then found to be false witnesses about God, for we have testified about God that he raised Christ from the dead. But he did not raise him if in fact the dead are not raised. For if the dead are not raised, then Christ has not been raised either. And if Christ has not been raised, your faith is futile; you are still in your sins. 
- 1 Corinthians 15:13-17

In short, if what Paul knew about God was wrong, then it was pointless. Paul basically says here that people should get into one of the two camps and stick with their decision. Paul believes that God exists and that there are consequences of that belief. Unlike Schrödinger's make-believe cat though, reality will not collapse based upon people's observation. There is a concept about which to ask and you'd better make sure that the answer is right.

3. The problem with God is not that we don't have enough facts. The problem is that we don't have an idea at all, and so we can't even know what kinds of facts we should be looking for. Facts about what? To look for facts about God would be like trying to put justice on a scale and weigh it in ounces and pounds. (page 126)
Essentially what Steinberger has been suggesting and building up to at this point is that God as a thing which as he his it, is both impossible and completely possible, is also indescribable because the concept is invalid.
Steinberger at this point thinks that the concept of God is as The Princess Bride's Vizzini would say: "Inconceivable." Like Inigo Montoya, I do not think it means what he thinks it means.

If I wanted to collect facts about something I'd start to make observations, or read a book by someone who had already done so. Science itself comes from the Latin word "scientia" which means "knowledge". If I for instance wanted to find something out Immanuel Kant, I could either read a book about him or better yet, I could read his works and gain some perspective into the way that he though.

If I wanted to fine something out about the Crimean War, I might look at either contemporary accounts, newspaper accounts which made investigations or later documents by historians who made their investigations. Like a detective in search of the facts, I also wouldn't even know what kinds of facts we should be looking for but I do know that once we'd found them, we'd have a better picture built up that when we started.

Many have undertaken to draw up an account of the things that have been fulfilled among us, just as they were handed down to us by those who from the first were eyewitnesses and servants of the word. With this in mind, since I myself have carefully investigated everything from the beginning, I too decided to write an orderly account for you, most excellent Theophilus, so that you may know the certainty of the things you have been taught.
- Luke 1:1-4

Ah Luke, physician and I suspect, amateur investigative journalist. Before Luke wrote his account, he made many trips and visited people and witnesses who saw events, who heard Christ speak in person and more than likely interviewed people. In doing so, I actually wonder if Luke racked up more miles than either Paul of Timothy of whom he wrote.
Also, the fact that we have four gospels, seems to me like a pretty good standard if you wanted to present a legal case to a court. Four independent accounts do better than fulfil the Roman Legal requirements of finding three witnesses for a case.

If you wanted to find out something about a person, then finding out what they said might be a pretty good place to start. I did a quick search in Bible Gateway to find all the instances and variants of "The Lord God said" or thereabouts and found 1024 of them. I mean, if you wanted a pretty good idea of someone, to have more than a thousand things that they said, also seems pretty comprehensive to me.

For since the creation of the world God’s invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that people are without excuse.
- Romans 1:20

Again, if God's invisible qualities have clearly been seen, then it isn't really a matter of what is knowable or not knowable about God but rather, what is deemed acceptable proof of God's existence.

Steinberger's conclusion:
Except to say - lamely, incoherently, as quietly as possible - that this cannot be all there is. That if the pathetic limits of the human mind cannot be transcended - which they cannot - there nonetheless absolutely must be something (sic!!) that is indeed transcendent. I hope you can see that this is not a matter of faith. It's not a guess. It's not a wish. It's simply and completely and undeniably true.
The three pillars upon which the arguments in this book run (first cause, lack of concept and unknowability) all fail on him and he arrives at a conclusion which as a Christian I agree with. My problem with "The Problem With God" then, is that I find all of his arguments faulty.
The whole book is either built upon the premise of building up straw men and then setting them on fire. That for me is a bad way to conduct an argument; even if I do happen to agree with the conclusion. Either the book has been written with the intent of creating straw men and then tearing them down (which I think is a dishonest method of conducting and argument) or he genuinely started out without preconceptions and then ended up tearing them down anyway (in which case, then that's just plain clumsy).
Even with my own a priori viewpoint that God exists, is real, is knowable, existed and could have always existed without first cause, I just don't find the arguments as presented in this book acceptable.

My problem with "The Problem With God" is that it ends up being a meta-argument against itself and I just don't know how far down a Klein shaped rabbit hole I'm prepared to go.

May 08, 2014

Horse 1671 - Going Postal Before The Post Office Goes To The Dogs

http://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-post-boss-floats-userpays-mail-delivery-20140506-zr5qd.html?rand=9948213#comments
Australia Post chairman John Stanhope said a user-pays postal system was a viable option after the company's letter operations ­suffered a $218 million loss last year because the public had sent fewer letters than ever.
The user-pays model means residents would pay an annual bill in addition to the stamp price, which increased from 60¢ to 70¢ in March.
"If you want it fast, you pay for it," Mr Stanhope said.
"You want it more related to the cost base, so if you are happy enough for your letter to be delivered less frequently then you pay less, if you want it more frequent you pay more, if you want it express you pay more, so you pay for the level of service," he told Fairfax Media following a Trans-Tasman lunch in Melbourne on Tuesday.
- Sydney Morning Herald, 7th May 2014

What a top idea!
I'm thinking completely crazily right now, so hear me out. Maybe we could have a system where the sender pays in advance for the mail to be delivered and the proof of that payment could be affixed to the mail in some way. We could even affix that proof in the top right hand corner of our mail.
I don't know, perhaps we could charge a small fee, say about 60 or 70 cents, for a letter to be sent and more for large letters and parcels and maybe we could even have a different kind of fee for a faster, less call it "Express" postal delivery service.
I don't know, maybe someone has had the idea of a uniform low rate of Postage before. I could be wrong about that though.

I have a distinct problem with the idea that Australia Post is toying with. Okay, fair enough that if you want more frequent deliveries then you pay more and less deliveries then you pay less but what happens if multiple "customers" have different delivery plans on the same street?

What happens for instance if for just one street, Banana Street in Banana Town:
- the residents at Numbers 3, 9, 11, 17, 25, 2, 8, 14, 16, 18, Banana Public School and 32 are on daily delivery schedules
- the residents at Numbers 1, 5, 7, 13, 19, 21, 23, 27, 29, 31, 4, 6, 10, 12, 20, 22, and 30 are on 3-day delivery schedules
- the residents at Numbers 33 and 28 are on a weekly schedule, and
- Mr Bun, the grumpy man at number 15 gets his mail from the post office?

Postman Pat still has to travel down Banana Street every single day after leaving Banana Post Office. One some days he doesn't deliver to houses but still have to pass by them. Where are the "savings" to be made here? And what if lots of people decide that they want to be like Mr Bun, the grumpy man at number 15? Suddenly, Banana Post Office has to keep all of those letters and parcels on-site, where they might pile up for days; whereas previously, they'd have been moved out as part of the regular mail delivery run, which by the way still has to be done.
It's enough to drive you... well... er... down Banana Street (but not delivering the mail to those people who haven't paid for a daily service obviously).

Also from the same article:
Former boss of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Graeme Samuel repeated his view at the same lunch that the service should be sold by the federal government, joining other powerful supporters including former chairman David Mortimer and the Business Council of Australia.
''Of course it should be privatised and of course it will be subject to the mother of all scare campaigns,'' Mr Samuel recently told Fairfax. ''We will hear about how it will remove services from the bush but if people look at the arguments rationally, they just don’t stack up.
- Sydney Morning Herald, 7th May 2014

This wouldn't by any chance be the same Graeme Samuel who once was the executive director of Macquarie Bank would it? The same Graeme Samuel who was a founder of corporate "advisors" Grant Samuel & Associates?

I wonder where Graeme Samuel's connections lie. Maybe with the IPA? Wouldn't it be curious if the IPA's position was also to privatise Australia Post (No.48)? I don't suppose that the Commission of Audit just happens to agree with that as well does it? Oops, maybe it does:

http://www.ncoa.gov.au/report/docs/phase_one_report.pdf
The Commission recommends that a number of entities be privatised including in the near
term: Australian Hearing Services; Snowy Hydro Limited; ASC Pty Ltd; and Defence Housing
Australia. In the medium term the Australian Postal Corporation; Moorebank Intermodal
Company Limited; Australian Rail Track Corporation Limited; Royal Australian Mint; and
COMCAR should be privatised.
- Page xxviii, Commission of Audit, Phase One, Feb 2014

What's Mr Samuel's interest in having Australia Post privatised? What does he gain personally from all of this? Perhaps he is casting his eye over the profits of Australia Post and is thinking that maybe, he personally deserves a slice of those.

http://auspost.com.au/about-us/australia-post-increases-profit.html
Group profit of $281 million and strong profit growth of 16.6 per cent - the second year of profit growth under the current "Future Ready" strategy.
- Australia Post, 11 Oct 2012.

I'm growing suspicious of news articles like this. There seems to be a cabal of people who are loosely connected, with the intent of finding the few remaining government services and stealing them from the good and fair people of Australia; given what happened with the privatisation of the Royal Mail in the UK, I think that we should be very very suspicious of people like Graeme Samuel.

May 07, 2014

Horse 1670 - Be Nice To The ATO

Last week, I was filling out an Individual Tax Return for a client of ours and for the life of me, I couldn't remember what the occupation code was for an Importer/Exporter; knowing that I had until the 15th of May to get the return in (please check the ATO Website - link here) I fired off a tweet and this is the reply that I got back.


Pure. Spun. Comedy. Gold. Story. End of.

Not only was I able to finish everything quickly and efficiently but, I had a bit of fun doing it. There are a few things that I want to draw out of this.

The Australian Taxation Office services a nation of 23 million irate customers. No-one really likes to pay tax; in fact no-one really likes to pay for anything. Paying tax is then a necessary duty of the members of a civilised society and the ATO is the receiving end. I bet that in an average day dealing with the public, the ATO's staff are probably more subject to abuse and insult than any other single entity.

Come on Australia. The people who work for the Tax Office, roll up their sleeves like the rest of us, have families to go home to at the end of the day and have as many hopes, fears and dreams as any of us.  If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?
I bet that the people at the ATO, also have the power to revenge in many little ways that we don't even know about. It might be possible for instance for mysterious audits to just magically appear out of nowhere.

Also, one thing I've learned over the years is that it is far easier to catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar. Be nice to people and they're more likely to respond. Sure, I could have just as easily have looked this up myself but by thinking a little creatively, I've added to Australia's Gross National Happiness by at least a couple of Millipuppies*. Happiness is an economic commodity which in some cases has a multiplier effect.

I don't know who the person who runs the Twitter handle for the ATO is but this is an example to the world of how to do effective customer service. This is an object lesson and whoever it is deserves a gold star or a skippy badge...
I should also probably tell the ATO that Vandelay Industries, which is an Import/Export company of matches, latex products and diapers, hasn't lodged any returns for a while.

Be nice to the people at the ATO. Think people!

*Millipuppy - measure of happiness.
From Wikipedia:
Lucy van Pelt is credited in the comic strip Peanuts to have discovered the axiom "happiness is a warm puppy" (25th Apr 1962). The proposed SI unit of happiness, puppy, is derivable as the quantity of happiness that a one kilogram beagle puppy whose body temperature is 310 kelvins produces when held in skin contact for one second.

May 06, 2014

Horse 1669 - That Was Not What Democracy Is About

Hey hey, ho ho.
Something or other has got to go.
Hey hey, ho ho.
Something or other has got to go.

When strudents on ABC1's "Q and A" program last night protested, presenter Tony Jones in the interest of decorum and order quite rightly asked them to hush and some degree of order was brought to the studio. However, I think that he said something which was quite quite wrong:



That was not what democracy is about.
- Tony Jones, Q and A, ABC 1, 5th May 2014.

Granted that being disruptive and loud in what is supposed to be a television show with sensible and robust debate, isn't exactly what it is supposed to be about and it did appear horribly misguided but I couldn't help but feel that democracy was being trampled into the dirt.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-for-sale-joe-hockey-offers-privileged-access-20140504-zr06v.html
Treasurer Joe Hockey is offering privileged access to a select group including business people and industry lobbyists in return for tens of thousands of dollars in donations to the Liberal Party via a secretive fund-raising body whose activities are not fully disclosed to election funding authorities.
The Independent Commission Against Corruption is probing Liberal fund-raising bodies such as the Millennium Forum and questioning their influence on political favours in NSW.
Mr Hockey offers access to one of the country's highest political offices in return for annual payments.
The donors are members of the North Sydney Forum, a campaign fundraising body run by Mr Hockey's North Sydney Federal Electoral Conference (FEC). In return for annual fees of up to $22,000, members are rewarded with "VIP" meetings with Mr Hockey, often in private boardrooms.
The North Sydney FEC officials who run the forum – which is an incorporated entity of the Liberal Party – say its membership lists and therefore the identities of its donors are "confidential". Mr Hockey also says details of who he is meeting and what is discussed are confidential.
- Sydney Morning Herald, 5th May 2014.

The front pages of both today's and yesterday's Sydney Morning Herald and The Age both ran with these allegations that the Treasurer Joe Hockey has been charging to host an audience with people.
Is that what democracy is about?

Given that neither the Australian and the Daily Telegraph who proudly championed the cause of the Liberal Party and have done their level best to stomp the ABC into the ground, have remained incredibly silent, when even the so-called "fourth estate" is negligently asleep at the wheel...
Is that what democracy is about?

The recent Commission of Audit which handed down its report of over 1300 pages and which adopts 21 of the IPA's wishlist from John Roskam, Chris Berg and James Paterson (the first of whom was on Q and A last night) and most of which will probably become government policy within 3 years, written by big business; for big business, suggests to me that policy is written and made by those with the most money.
Is that what democracy is about?

Democracy (in so far as I understand the Greek roots) comes from "dêmos" or "the people" and "kratos" or "rule". Democracy in theory should be literally "rule by the people" but seemingly, it isn't.
Instead we have a word from "ploutos" or "wealth" and "kratos" to become "Plutocracy" or "rule by the rich" where increasingly, the people in charge have no regard for any social or civic responsibility despite readily demanding taxation and labour from the people.
Instead we're very quickly heading down the road to another kind of rule. "Kakistos" or "worst" and  "kratos" to become "Kakistocracy" or "rule by the worst kinds of people". Governments have decided to throw their citizens overboard and Capitalism has decided that it no longer needs to listen to government; not when it can just buy all the voice.
Is that what democracy is about?

What's really sad is that Christopher Pyne who sat on the panel, is prepared to sit and merrily laugh away like a grinning Pierrot, whilst the decisions that he makes as the Minister for Education has real effects on real people. Who does he choose to listen to? Certainly not the rowdy bunch of people in the public galleries, who are those people who his decisions have real effects on, no. "The Honourable" Christopher Pyne listens to the man a couple of seats away down the panel, John Roskam.
Because that's what in an Australian context, our "democracy" is really about.

Aside:
http://ipa.org.au/publications/2080/be-like-gough-75-radical-ideas-to-transform-australia
The following items from the IPA's list either became government policy, or appear either entirely or elements therein in the Commission of Audit and so by an appeal to supposed authority, will become government policy (after all, that is the point of the report isn't it?)

2 Abolish the Department of Climate Change
3 Abolish the Clean Energy Fund
4 Repeal Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act
7 Return income taxing powers to the states
11 Introduce fee competition to Australian universities
18 Eliminate family tax benefits
19 Abandon the paid parental leave scheme
20 Means-test Medicare
21 End all corporate welfare and subsidies by closing the Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education
28 Abolish the Foreign Investment Review Board
29 Eliminate the National Preventative Health Agency
30 Cease subsidising the car industry
43 Repeal the mining tax
47 Cease funding the Australia Network
48 Privatise Australia Post
49 Privatise Medibank
50 Break up the ABC and put out to tender each individual function 
51 Privatise SBS 
52 Reduce the size of the public service from current levels of more than 260,000 to at least the 2001 low of 212,784
69 Immediately halt construction of the National Broadband Network and privatise any sections that have already been built
72 Privatise the CSIRO
75 Privatise the Snowy-Hydro Scheme

May 04, 2014

Horse 1668 - Paid Parental Welfare (and how to get free money for nothing)

http://www.3aw.com.au/blogs/3aw-news-blog/abbott-trims-his-ppl-promise/20140430-37hbk.html
"The important thing about paid parental leave is that it's not a welfare entitlement.
It's a workplace entitlement and if we get paid sick leave and holiday pay and long service leave at our wage, why shouldn't we also be paid parental leave at our wage? That's a fundamental principle and this government is absolutely committed to it."
- PM Tony Abbott on 3AW (Melbourne), 30 Apr 2014.

I don't want to denigrate the value of mothers of of the critical importance of the role of the family on society, do don't get me wrong here but unlike sick leave, holiday pay, long service leave, overtime and other penalty rates, the Prime Minister is critically wrong when it comes to the issue of his Paid Parental Leave Scheme because he has made a critical category error.

Firstly, for this I'm going to use the readily acceptable definition of welfare rather than the way it is used in economics; that is, a welfare payment is one which is made by the government. Technically they should be called transfer payments.
Anyway, unlike sick leave, holiday pay, long service leave, overtime and other penalty rates are workplace entitlements because they are spelled out either at law within the context of an award or through the instrument of an enterprise agreement. The proposed Paid Parental Leave Scheme is not a workplace entitlement because it is a government payment and not one coming from an employer. It's not a fundamental principle; so stop lying.

The other thing I have to say about the scheme which almost is never discussed is the way in which it is paid. The Paid Parental Leave Scheme is supposed to act as a replacement for income lost by a parent who decides to care for their newly born child; yes I understand that the jump from two incomes back to one is going to be immense but in principle, the proposed Paid Parental Leave Scheme makes a value judgement about the children in society.
That is, it directly say monetarily that the child of a parent who is on $100K is directly twice as valuable to society as the child of a parent who is on $50K. It directly says that richer people are worth more to society than poorer people and then rewards them upon that basis.
Surely, those people at the bottom who find life already difficult, would appreciate the extra funds more than someone at the top. If income tax is a progressive system, then why is having children different?

Also, if you really were to think about it; provided you could set up a company on the cheap, you could simply just game the system by setting up a wage arrangement to pay wages from the company in the previous financial year, to then collect the Paid Parental Leave Scheme money at the highest possible rate. At very worst, you'd be assessed at 30c in the dollar for that previous financial year but every single dollar that you'd collect in the Paid Parental Leave Scheme would be effective tax free.
Basically if you do intend to have a child, then pay the parent at the highest possible rate whilst you can; even if the money passes from one hand to the other, it still creates a PAYG Summary statement an at the end of the financial year; that's all that counts.

May 02, 2014

Horse 1667 - An Open Letter to Everton F.C.

Dear Everton,

I know that we haven't seen eye to eye (what with me being a Liverpool fan and all) and I might have said some mean things about you in the past but it's not like we're horrible enemies in the same way that I might be with Manchester United.
Just like the rivalry between England and Scotland, Australia and New Zealand, or Nutella and Peanut Butter, Everton and Liverpool are a pair of first best enemies and worst best friends.

Do you remember how in 1986, the people of Liverpool left en masse and bundled into trains and cars to invade London for the FA Cup Final? That day, reds and blues, blues and reds, all mingled in a glorious sea of Royal Liverpool Purple as the Glorious Kingdom of Merseyside knew either way that it would claim the silverware.
Likewise in the weeks which followed the tragedy of Hillsborough, it was you who stood with us side by side in our darkest hours, in this fortress built by nature for herself; against infection and the hand of war; and The Sun. Indeed to this day, if reds or blues buy The Sun in Liverpool, they are quite rightly met with scorn and derision.

We both know that the eternal struggle between Liverpool and Everton is the "friendly derby" because supporters of both clubs have to go back to work, or school the next morning. Even homes can be split in twain.

So Everton, we appeal to you in the spirit of brotherly rivalry to do one small thing for us... beat Manchester City on Saturday at Goodison. Yes we understand we're asking for help in winning a league title but please remember that it was this same city from up the Mersey, who stole your golden child Rooney and whose citizens have looked down the Mersey from atop a gilded tower built with Murdoch's and several Russian billionaires' money.

We ask that you beat Manchester City for us; although this does mean that a league title passes into the hands of Anfield, it would still be in the postcode of L4 and surely that's better than M anything?
Because we'd all like to see the likes of Manchester City standing alone (or with a pathetically annoying red friend); without a dream in their heart; without a love of their own.

Thanks in advance,
Rollo.

PS: If you want a cathedral, we've got one to spare... but we're keeping Anfield. You moved out in 1892.

Horse 1666 - DIVE

This is Horse 1666. Great fires of London!

http://www.pepysdiary.com/diary/1666/09/
Sir W. Pen and I to Tower- streete, and there met the fire burning three or four doors beyond Mr. Howell’s, whose goods, poor man, his trayes, and dishes, shovells, &c., were flung all along Tower-street in the kennels, and people working therewith from one end to the other; the fire coming on in that narrow streete, on both sides, with infinite fury. Sir W. Batten not knowing how to remove his wine, did dig a pit in the garden, and laid it in there; and I took the opportunity of laying all the papers of my office that I could not otherwise dispose of. And in the evening Sir W. Pen and I did dig another, and put our wine in it; and I my Parmazan cheese, as well as my wine and some other things. 
- Diary of Samuel Pepys, 4th Sep 1666

Samuel Pepys who would become an MP, once worked under the then Exchequer, George Downing; for whom Downing Street is named. Pepys revolutionised the Royal Navy, is mentioned in Newton's "Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica" but is most famous for the diary he kept for nine years... and burying cheese...
Pepys was somewhat obsessive and it is that vein, that I continue Horse 1666.

A game with which I was quite obsessed with for a while was 2048.
http://gabrielecirulli.github.io/2048/
2048 is a game in which you mash together two identical tiles to form an new one. These tiles are in ascending powers of 2 until you get to the 2¹¹ tile which is 2048; hence the name of the game.

http://annimon.github.io/16384/
There is a variant of this on an 8x8 grid in which the same rules apply except that you need to get to the 2¹⁴ tile which is 16384.
I eventually worked out that if you play this game for long enough, the tiles through a process of spontaneous arrangement will eventually arrive at something approaching a normal distribution with some 2ˣ at the very centre. Once when I was listening to a Liverpool match over the internet and played for just over 2 hours, I got to the 2²° tile which was 1048576.

I've subsequently found this brilliant list of 2048 variants:
http://phenomist.wordpress.com/2048-variants/
But the best that I've found there is DIVE:
http://alexfink.github.io/dive/


DIVE feeds all sorts of nerdiness quotients and requirements because rather than 2048's condition of mashing together identical tiles, provided that one is a factor of another, the two tiles will mash. That is to say that 11 will mash with 55 to produce 66 but 22 will not mash with 55. Both 11 and 22 will mash with 66 as both are factors and the resulting tiles are 77 and 88 respectively.

Perhaps most satisfyingly of all, DIVE is more about management of factors that 2048 could ever hope to be. Because new tiles which are generated are all the "prime" factors of the tiles already on the board, careful management can result in the elimination of unwanted primes from the available list. Curiously, if a some power of a prime like a square or a cube etc. is a factor and no other multiple of said prime currently exists on the board, then that is used instead. Numbers like 25, 8 and 169 will on rare occasions crop up.

It is the accidental appearance of unwanted primes where the frustration in this game truly lives. Numbers like 13, 17, 19 & 37 which appear, will not form nice multiples whereas 4, 8, 6, 9, 10, 15, 25, 30, 60 etc. are things which are readily useful.

Typically I'll get a score between about 700-1000 but I'm very much aware that the way to push forward to scores of 2000+ is to manipulate the tiles to start generating massive primes. To date, the biggest prime that the game has ever generated for me is 727 but the biggest prime which I've ever matched with another is 349.

Like 2048, I suspect that had the game had a far larger board to play on (say 8x8) that it too would nominally fall into a normal distribution pattern. Also like 2048, I suspect that the highest possible score is something approaching 23³ or 12167 simply because I don't think that it would be technically possible to go much beyond that without generating 2s. As a result of the way that the game operates, the fewest number of tiles that you can have on the board are the initial pair of 2s; beyond that there are at least three tiles always. 2s though are a very small prime (the smallest) and 2 is a factor of every even number; so that must have some limiting process on the game.

DIVE like 2048 is a game with a limiting process as time goes on. Clearly insanity has no limits, even as 2ˣ approaches ∞.

May 01, 2014

Horse 1665 - Shock; Horror! 1% And 2% Tax Rise! Run For The Hills!

Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!
There is a lion in the road! There is a lion in the streets!

We'll all be murdered in our beds!

I like to pay taxes. With them I buy civilization.
- Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.

Isn't the media strange? I bet that for the period between 2001-2012 when Australia had a period of 10 years of tax cuts in 12 years, no-one said 'boo'. Yet the second that a government tries to move one step in correcting this, the media cries foul, flaggelates itself, chucks a hissy fit and has a sulk.
The Daily Telegraph, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Australian and even The Guardian were all guilty of this and collectively, looking at the the Australian press is like watching a room full of three year olds having a temper tantrum competition.
The Guardian was the least like a three year old though and the tone of this sounded more like a grumpy teenager.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/29/pretending-debt-levy-not-tax-insults-voters
Now that the prime minister has confirmed the government is considering a “debt levy” and Sydney’s Daily Telegraph is telling us it is likely to be 1% for those earning between $80,000 and $180,000 and 2% for those earning over $180,000 it is possible to calculate the extent to which Australian voters may have been duped.
Tony Abbott spent four years in a hi-vis vest telling us over and over about the “almost unimaginable” hit on families’ cost of living from the carbon tax and how the average household would be $550 a year better off when he “axed the tax”. He somehow forgot to mention another tax that for many families would take all, or most, of that money away again.
- The Guardian, 29th Apr 2014

Oh for goodness sake. Grow up. This only affects those people who already earn at least 107% of average income. In practice, the distribution of incomes in Australia is skewed anyway; so at least more than 50% of the population will remain completely unaffected.
This is one of those rare occasions where I find myself agreeing with the PM Tony Abbott. His reasoning as far as I can make out is completely sensible and pragmatic.

"I think if there was a permanent increase in taxation that would certainly be inconsistent with the sort of things that were said before the election.
There's been speculation, as you know, about a deficit reduction levy. Certainly, my intention is that people like myself - high-income earners - should bear a significant quantum of the burden when it comes to sorting out our problems."
- PM Tony Abbott, on 3AW, 29th Apr 2014


A "debt levy"is it? Oh tish. It's an income tax rise. It isn't like we have never had changes in taxation rates before. Income tax rates have changed a lot since the introduction of the Income Tax Assessment Act of 1936. Why is this particularly strange or weird?

All that happens is that the posted tax rates shift from:
0 – $18,200 - Nil
$18,201 – $37,000 - 19c for each $1 over $18,200
$37,001 – $80,000 - $3,572 plus 32.5c for each $1 over $37,000
$80,001 – $180,000 - $17,547 plus 37c for each $1 over $80,000
$180,001 and over - $54,547 plus 45c for each $1 over $180,000

To the following:
0 – $18,200 - Nil
$18,201 – $37,000 - 19c for each $1 over $18,200
$37,001 – $80,000 - $3,572 plus 32.5c for each $1 over $37,000
$80,001 – $180,000 - $17,547 plus 38c for each $1 over $80,000
$180,001 and over - $55,547 plus 47c for each $1 over $180,000

The last time that we saw a 47% tax rate in Australia was the 2005–06 financial year. Even then, the actual brackets themselves weren't this generous. Do you want to see a flood of fear? Travel back in time to the year 1983–84 and we find a 60% tax bracket and that was when real wages for most people were higher than they are now.

"Let’s take a single income family with a couple of kids on $150,000 a year. Under the detailed calculations Labor provided with its carbon tax plan, they would have paid around $760 a year in extra bills as the tax flowed through at its original $23 price, and would have received $77 in compensation, leaving them $683 a year worse off.
Or take a dual income family with kids where both parents earn $100,000 a year. They didn’t get any compensation under the carbon tax and – according to the former government’s tables – wound up $1,000 a year worse off. Under the debt levy they’d be paying $2,000."
- The Guardian, 29th Apr 2014

Yes, how about we do take a single income family with a couple of kids on $150,000 a year. According to the Australian Taxation Office's Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE) figures (which by the way work out to be $74,724), this single income family with a couple of kids earns more than double the amount of average income. Why pray tell shouldn't they shoulder more of the burden of debt than someone on less than half of that?

AWOTE: http://www.ato.gov.au/rates/key-superannuation-rates-and-thresholds/?page=35

I've written previously on the subject of why progressive taxation is inherently a good thing before (see Horse 1218) but quite apart from that, someone on $150,000 year actually benefited more from the 10 years of tax cuts in 12 years more than someone on AWOTE could have ever have done. At no point did I ever hear anyone complain about that.
Unlike the United States, Joint Tax Returns do not exist. In Australia, married persons are taxed separately on their respective incomes and must lodge individual returns. As a consequence, they are assessed separately and already derive the benefit from the tax-free threshold twice. Two people who together earn $200,000, "save" $13,653 than had this amount been aggregated; admittedly though, there probably would be a different set of taxation rates if Joint Tax Returns did exist but I really don't know how far down the rabbit hole we wish to go.
Also, if you can't honestly manage your finances on more than double AWOTE, you have serious self-discipline problems. Someone on that sort of money is in no way struggling financially at all and to pretend so, is a lie.

Anyone who was part way in the know, or who had MYEFO or who had a vague idea of the news cycle knew that the Liberal Party had been flagging some sort of structural changes in the budget and since raising the GST is fraught with political turmoil, really all that was left was to undo the previous tax cuts a little:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-18/kohler-those-income-tax-cuts-arent-looking-so-good-now/5163338
Having beaten up the ALP about what an emergency/crisis/disaster they have left, the most difficult part of the Government's fiscal challenge is not to prepare the nation for tax increases and spending cuts next year, but for the lack of them.
...
These are big cuts to the personal income tax base that now look irresponsible in the light of 10 years of projected deficits because of the decline in the terms of trade.
And while increasing the rate of GST and/or closing its holes should not be off the table, doing that would hit poor people the hardest. Increasing income taxes - gradually, over time - would raise more money and be fairer.
- Alan Kohler, ABC, 18th Dec 2013

Mind you, six months before this, the Australia Institute which is an independent think-tank was already playing with calculations and had come to the conclusion that income tax cuts probably shouldn't have taken place at all:

http://www.tai.org.au/content/tax-cuts-broke-budget
If the budget is in deficit because of income tax cuts that primarily benefited the highest income earners and that is being used as a reason not to give more money or support to the poor and disadvantaged, then political debate in Australia has reached a new low. 
Using NATSEM modelling, the full extent of the tax cuts was determined by calculating the amount of revenue the government would have collected had the income tax cuts from 2005-06 to 2011-12 not taken place. These tax cuts represent a major structural change to the federal budget. In 2011-12 they slashed the amount of income tax the federal government was able to collect by a quarter.
- "Tax cuts that broke the budget", The Australia Institute, May 2013

This is one of those occasions where I'm not going to engage in paraleipsis and say "I hate to say I told you so" because I really really love to say it. Is it plagerism if you quote yourself? I told you so.

The budget currently suffers from a major skew, caused by previous horrendous tax cuts and no government has bothered to correct the problem. The solution is not tax cuts but a restoration of revenues; which means tax increases. Obviously there's a revenue problem here.
Mr Hockey won't of course tell you this of course. He can't. It would hurt the ears of his own electorate to hear it.
- Horse 1582, 18th Dec 2013

I think that Mr Abbott and Mr Hockey have stared long and hard into the gun barrel of history and decided that it's now pointing squarely at them. Tax increases, even at marginal rates of 1% and 2% really do hurt the ears of their own electorates to hear but really, this is a story which needed to be told and was so far ahead in the telling, that it makes you wonder at just how much attention people actually do pay to what's going on.
Probably nil. The media likes to chuck a hissy fit and have a sulk. It sells copy.