I can not believe that we are here again. With the news that Suella Braverman has been ejected from the Sunak Ministry, and that David Cameron has been appointed as Foreign Secretary (as well as being given a free seat upstairs in the House of Lords for life, to become Baron Cameron), various right-wing news media outlets which have decided to abandon truth, have suggested that Nigel Farage could be the next tory Prime Minister. What rot.
Now I don't expect Sky News, GB News, or Sky News Australia to tell the truth, but I do expect them to wrap their lies in some shred of plausibility. Lies work better if they are a bit plausible. If you want a cat to swallow medicine, you wrap it in a blob of meat and they can't tell the difference. Here though, the various right-wing trashmedia outlets aren't even trying. Admittedly there is a non-zero chance of Nigel Farage being be the next tory Prime Minister but so many things would have to happen first, that it is very very very very very very very very very unlikely¹.
What I think is happening here, is that in an effort to generate column inches, television minutes, and most importantly ad revenues, that news media outlets simply just make stuff up with no reference to truth. Then having made up stuff, other news media outlets will parrot it without bothering to check if it is possible, plausible, or probably. The unthinking portion of the population (which appears to be massive) don't seem to care about truth, and that portion of the population who already control capital don't have to care about truth because they're doing fine thank you very much. The first reason why Nigel Farage will not be the next tory Prime Minister should be immediately obvious to all and sundry. He is not a tory. The second reason, related to the first is that parliamentary democracies do not work that way.
In a parliamentary democracy and specifically a Westminster Parliament, the Prime Minister / First Minister / Premier is selected in caucus, by the available members on the floor of the chambers which can control supply. In the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, et cetera, supply aka the Appropriation Bills are originated from the lower house of parliaments. Whoever can control the passage of Appropriation Bills, that is whoever can pull the purse strings of the nation, makes the parliament and by extension the government dance like a puppet. Westminster Parliaments are completely agnostic when it comes to where the Prime Minister comes from, and there have been instances of Prime Ministers having come from the upper houses but in general Prime Ministers come from the lower houses in Westminster Parliaments. Why this is so should also be pretty obvious.
The Prime Minister as head of executive government, is selected by that caucus of members who can control the public purse. That caucus of members is made up of a majority of members on the floor of the chamber; which does not necessarily imply that they even are all of the same political party. There have been instances where the Prime Minister has come from smaller parties within a coalition group; usually because the coalition in total has come to the conclusion that that person is the best person for the job. Here's where the argument that Nigel Farage will be the next tory Prime Minister falls down on so many counts.
Firstly, Nigel Farage is not a member of the Conservative Party. Now while it isn't impossible that the tories would select someone who wasn't their own to head their executive government, it's so unlikely that the mere suggestion of it is laughable. There are hundreds of tory MPs in the House of Commons and more hundreds of tory MPs in the House of Lords. The tories might be bereft of talent, competence, and ability but they're not bereft of ambition and selfishness. There would be many many tory MPs queueing up for the job of head of the Conservative Party well before Nigel Farage would be considered for the job.
Secondly, Nigel Farage is not a member of the Conservative Party. The thing that I can not answer at this point is whether or not having achieved Brexit (which has made Britain oh so smaller in terms of influence) he would even consider joining the party. He might very well if he thought that there was some political path to him becoming Prime Minister, however I just don't see it.
Secondly and a tenthly, would the Conservative Party endorse him as a member? I have no idea what kind of terms that he and Conservative Party leadership are on but for him to get on the ballot as a tory candidate would mean that he would need to be placed there instead of a local rank and file member. Yes, local politics is often twelve old fuddy-duddies and a dog called Kevin in a local Scout Hall but really?
Thirdly, Nigel Farage is not a member of either the House of Commons or the House of Lords. If he set his heart to become a member of the House of Commons, would he do so as a Conservative Party candidate or as an Independent candidate? Then having somehow made his way onto the ballot paper, would the constituents of that electorate then elect him to be their local member, knowing full well that he is actually unlikely to do all that good a job at representing them? As for how he would be appointed as a peer in the House of Lords, I have no idea of who would give him that post.
Third and a halfly, if we suppose that Nigel Farage does manage to win a seat in the House of Commons as an Independent member, then in what world does either a Labour Party or a Conservative Party choose him as Premier, over one of their own. One of the massive flaws of the BBC Television series "Years And Years" is that Vivian Rook becomes Prime Minister as the only member of her Four Star Party. This might very well work in a fictional television series (provided that you suspend your belief in common sense) but in the real world, that just plain barking mad².
Fourthly, the tories have done such a monumentally rubbish job they they almost certainly will not be returned to government at the next General Election. While this might mean that Rishi Sunak steps out of the way as current tory leadership crumbles and implodes even further, that would likely mean that the tories would not get another crack at government³ until 2029 or 2030. That's so far in the future that while all bets are off, it would be nigh on impossible to predict if Nigel Farage would even be in politics by then.
Is that 4.6 reasons? To be fair I have no idea what kind of mathematical nonsense and nerdery that I have created but I do know that a little bit of nothing multiplied but a lot of rubbish equals a whole lot of nothing. Yeah, nah. Nigel Farage is not going to be the next tory Prime Minister. The idea is madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of the 2023 Mister Madman Competitition. He could very well win Bingo at the Kebab And Calculator Hotel, in the village of Much Waffling but that's about it.
¹Three times repetition means to draw reader's attention to a certain quality or phrase in a passage. Three times three times repetition means to take that to its extreme ridiculous conclusion.
²Barking Mental Hospital is on the other side of London from Bethlem Royal Hospital which is in Bromley.
³The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025.
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