https://manlyobserver.com.au/bus-issues-drag-on-for-northern-beaches-commuters/
March has seen bus commuters face long lines and extended wait times, with several Manly Observer readers telling us they have simply given up and opted to drive in.
It’s been even worse for commuters in the Frenchs Forest and Belrose area, where driver shortages are even higher and cancellations a daily event.
The primary provider of local bus services, private operator Keolis Downer, which franchises the operations from NSW Transport, said the issues were caused by a number of drivers calling in sick.
- Manly Observer, 16th Mar 2024
Well... it somehow got worse.
Horse has previously written on both the gap in the Sydney Trains network on the Northern Beaches (the Northern Beaches needs an L - Horse 3286) and the seemingly Schrodinger's Bus that is the B1 (Horse 2550). The B1 Bus from Mona Vale to Wynyard, in lieu of the Northern Beaches Line which was touted in Bradfield's 1916 plan and for which provision was made on the eastern side of the Sydney Harbour Bridge, by the time it gets to Mosman is always so full of an evening that the headboard will frequently read "Sorry Bus Full".
The B1 Bus which was originally run at a 7 minute frequency, immediately after privatisation and take over by Keolis Downer was reduced to a 10 minute frequency. Well now, thanks to Keolis Downer being a for profit business, the B1 Bus has been degraded even further. And because (and yes I started this sentence with TWO conjunctions, so there) I am an accountant and data is beautiful, I thought I'd take a highly unscientific survey of every bus that I took between Wynyard and Mosman in both directions; taking note of the waiting times.
The data set covers from 13th August to 14th September
In the Morning:
9, 11, 14, x, x, 15, x, x, 19, 13, 16, 13, 16, 13, 11, x, 1, x, 12, x, 15, x, x, 16, x, x, x, 21, x, x, x, x
In the Evening:
x, x, 11, x, x, 18, x, x, 11, x, 2, 12, 13, 13, 14, x, x, x, x, 9, x, 22, x, x, x, x, 20, 19, x, x, x, 16
Here's the problem, the blank spaces in the data do not indicate a blank space in the data but rather a time when another bus (usually the 172X or 173X) arrived before the B1 bus arrived. Even so, assuming that we have a large enough data set, then the average waiting time for a B1 bus is a little over more than 13 minutes.
I very much realise that this is a first world problem and that my complaint is somewhat petty in the face of there being lots of bus services on the Northern Beaches, and further to that looks really silly when you consider that out in the west the 752 bus which I will often get operates on a 30 minute service (sometimes) but the point is still illustrative.
Once upon a time the 133 bus would leave Wynyard for Mona Vale on a tight 7.5 minute frequency. It was designed to chime off all of the quarter hours and the spaces in between. It was replaced by the M30 which became a "high frequency" service and then blew out to 10 minutes almost immediately; which was then was replaced by the 100 which is also supposedly a "high frequency" service and runs at a 20 minute service at best. Likewise, the B1 was touted along similar lines and although the route has not changed (probably because the big yellow double decker buses are so distinctive that they can not very well change the service in a hurry) the bus is likely now running on a 13 minute service.
The common thread here is that Keolis Downer being a for profit business runs both the B1 bus and the 100 bus services as for profit services. Of itself that is not a bad thing but a for profit business almost by definition does not want to do anything that is not profitable. In principle, the way that you make a profit is by collecting monies and then not spending any monies. If you can continue to collect monies while at the same time restricting the things that force you to spend money, then you are well on the way to spinning a profit.
What are those things that force you to spend money? As a bus company, those things are almost purely the running costs of buses. This includes registration, insurance, petrol, maintenance, somewhere to house the buses, and of course someone to drive the buses. Although I do not have access to Keolis Downer's accounts, I can tell you that running fewer services means that all of the running costs such as petrol, maintenance, and paying someone to drive the buses, must invariably be lower. The fact that Keolis Downer has been more or less forced to admit that it has been skimping on maintenance because of in-service breakdowns, indicates that it has been deliberately minimising its costs to spin a profit. The fact that immediately after what used to be the various Sydney Buses companies were sold off to various private corporations including Keolis Downer, that all of the drivers were fired and then hired back for lower wages indicates that it has been deliberately minimising its costs to spin a profit.
Lowering costs, in terms of reducing maintenance costs, paying drivers less, and running fewer services, means a worse service for the customer. Of course this is irrelevant for a private corporation as long as they can continue to collect monies; which they will as people who use public transport will continue to do so unless the service is so bad that they will be forced to change their habits. Also, as we don't have anything remotely like competition due to the fact that the various bus companies are assigned geographical areas of operation, then the general travelling public literally have no choice about the quality of the service because there are no competing operators. The 'choice' is really something of a Hobson's choice; which in this case is literally 'take it or leave it'; where leaving it actually means leaving the service.
Here's the kicker which turns this from a mere straight argument into a straight flush. When people leave the service and take their own car, they contribute to and actually become part of increased traffic. That in turn reduces the speed of traffic because of fluid dynamics rules; which means that as the B1 Bus is a bus and must live inside traffic, then the service gets even worse because it gets slower.
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