Now that this whole drama has been played out; the pieces have been put back on the board where they're supposed to go, can we please just go back to the business of the grand old game of politics?
In Horse 1279, I predicted this as the first of four possible outomes. Julia Gillard has been returned as the leader of the party; she has retained her job as Prime Minister. Everything will continue as before.
Tony Abbott I'm afraid will continue to spout the rather stupid line that the Prime Minister should be elected by the people despite the fact that this is not how the system works in a Westminster Parliament; there is no such thing as direct democracy as he is wan to suggest.
Further to this, I think that something else I alluded to in Horse 1279 was also in evidence, that Malcolm Turnbull really is the Liberal Party member with the most political competence and nous.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-27/live-blog-monday/3853898
8:51am: Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull says this "dysfunctional, chaotic" government makes the Addams Family look good. Mr Turnbull says now is the time for the independents to vote for a no confidence motion.
- ABC News Website, 27th Feb 2011
At 08:51am, more than an hour before the Labour caucus meeting was held, Turnbull suggested the only real sensible course of action that the Liberal Party should have embarked upon.
Whilst there was still ill-sentiment in the air, I would have sent either the party whips around or been sending every possible member in chambers to the offices of the four Independents, with the intent of asking them to vote in a motion of a loss of confiednce. Did that happen? No.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-says-no-new-start-for-labor-20120227-1txze.html
Mr Abbott renewed his call for an early federal election.
"The clear answer from today is that the only way we can get real change is with an election," he said.
"The prime minister should be chosen by the people - not the faceless men."
Asked if he would move a no confidence motion against the government, Mr Abbott remained uncommitted.
"I have no confidence in this prime minister," he replied.
- Sydney Morning Herald, 27th Feb 2012
I think Abbott if he was really serious about forcing an election, should have called for a censure motion. The fact that he didn't means that although he personally has "no confidence in this prime minister", I suspect that he can't get sufficient people to cross the floor with him in his lack of confidence.
As it stands nobody holds any election triggers and there hasn't even been a loss of supply either. I personally think that because we have such a fracturous parliament, Gillard won't call an election until 30 November 2013 which is the last possible day following the issue of the writs.
Because the parliament is perched on a knife-edge, the biggest concern for a lot of Labour Party members is little more than self-preservation; I don't think she'd risk losing even one of them. It therefore stands to reason that Gillard won't be the one to call an election before the expiry of the current Parliament.
I think this line from that ABC Timeline is quite curious:
"Mr Abbott says Australia needs an election, not because he particularly likes elections or because people need the inconvenience, but because the country needs a government elected by the people not run by the faceless men."
I hate to break it to Mr Abbott but Australia HAS a government elected by the people. Australians went to the polls on 21 August 2010. A government was formed from the sitting members. I suppose that you could suggest that Labor caucus is faceless but it's no more faceless than the equivalent Liberal Party caucus.
If Abbott was serious about wanting an election, then why doesn't he just force one. The mechanism exists. Maybe he's just too poltically coward to pull the levers? If that's the case, then the person whom Abbott actually has no confidence in as proved by his lack of action is... himself.
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