December 16, 2019

Horse 2638 - The General Election Was Broken By Design So That The Tories Did Win

The Tories have been returned to government in their own right as a result of the 2019 General Election. This election is a piece of political symphony for the Tory Party, even if it put the very future of the word 'United' in the United Kingdom in jeopardy.
By first expelling MPs who threw up objections to the process, Boris cleared the way for obedient and compliant MPs to take up their seats. Now, that the election has fallen according to plan, Boris now has a far more agreeable parliament than he had in October and will get his political agenda done.

By overlaying a different set of window dressing, the Tories have achieved their aims and taken back control. If the people thought that this was about them, then they must be delusional, as this is the Eurosceptic part of the Tory Party finally getting their way for their owners in The City. The people have merely been willing pawns.

However, it must be said that this is almost exclusively an English result. While it might be true that the Tories have won the most seats, they almost all occur in the places which are outside of the cities. Second to that, the biggest determinant to see if you voted Tory, is the question of whether or not you own a house.
Demographically speaking, this is mostly a victory by English older people who also own property; helped by a swing element of nativism.

It is best appreciated by looking at the results of the various constituent nations.


Ireland:
For the first time in history, Ireland returned more Sinn Féin MPs than unionists. This does of course mean that those MPs will not take up their seats in the parliament as is the normal practice for Sinn Féin and so they will not be voting on legislation. More importantly it means that Ireland has to seriously look at the possibility of unification referendums.

When legislation is passed by the House of Commons, then it will find no friction at all in the House of Lords and then be met with Royal Assent into law. Unfortunately that will place Northern Ireland outside of the European Union and unless there are Schengen arrangements put in place that will enable the free movement of people and goods across the Irish border, then some kind of border check will have to be put in place. That in itself is in direct conflict with the Good Friday agreement and it is only a few short steps away from radical elements of the IRA from restarting The Troubles again.

Surely there has to be moves toward having a unification referendum or the UK selling Northern Ireland to the Republic for £1. That sale option sounds daft but Scotland literally joined the union in 1707 after a bankruptcy issue and Hong Kong was subject to leasehold arrangements for 99 years. Selling Northern Ireland would be the most bloodless solution to the legal question.

I fully expect an Irish Unification Referendum by the end of 2021, which is in time for the centenary of the Republic.

Scotland:
Scotland overwhelmingly returned SNP MPs to Westminster. 49 of them will be sitting in the next parliament and unfortunately will be legislatively impotent. The Tories have a majority of the seats in the parliament and absolute control of the parliament; meaning that they need to consult with nobody, including the SNP.

The SNP whose manifesto has always included independence for Scotland, has now been bolstered by an absolute majority of Scottish seats, in what amounts to an English Parliament which does not need to and will not listen to the wishes of the Scottish people.

Scotland wanted to remain in the EU and should it gain independence from the UK, then it would have the strongest case ever made to join the EU because the Scottish Pound would be backed by North Sea Oil; which would mean that it would be the hardest currency in Europe.
I fully expect an Scottish Independence Referendum by the end of 2021.

England:
As I have said previously, the Tories won this election because they did the groundwork and quashed the Alternative Vote referendum when that came up. That means that the Tories have been returned to government with a majority of the seats but not with a majority of the votes.

If you apply the same rules to the General Election that the Brexit referendum was conducted under, then a majority of voters actually gave their disapproval to the newly elected government. I do not yet have access to the full vote count on an individual constituency basis but I suspect that the results will show that more than two thirds of seats were won with a minority of votes.

On an overall basis,
Pro Brexit - 14,661,396 - 46.1%
Anti Brexit -17,141,703 - 53.9%

If you apply the same rules to the General Election that the Brexit referendum was conducted under, then the Brexit Referendum would not have passed.

As the UK uses a First Past The Post system, which is really a 'most votes wins' system, then margins swing seats inside the majority of the votes.
Presumably there will be some Tory voters who will naturally vote Conservative however, this election was swung by specifically older and racist voters in the north. You can not accuse the Labour Party of losing the election because they were playing identity politics, when the headline reason why this General Election was called was to lock down a majority of the seats upon the basis of Britain's identity in relation to the European Union.

To be completely honest, I would not be surprised if the instigator of this whole quest, Nigel Farage, having achieved his objective, now gets installed in the House of Lords by Boris Johnson. It would also not surprise me if it turns out that both UKIP and The Brexit Party, were actually just subsidiaries of the Conservative Party, which were invented to say things which the normal Tory Party couldn't; thus dragging the whole electorate to the right.

Wales:
Thanks to the Laws in Wales Acts 1535–1542, Wales is a vanquished principality. The Welsh Dragon remains chained to the English Lion. Wales remains of functionally no consequence in this and indeed, every parliament.

I would expect at this point, that the Tories, having won power with no restraint, will fully abuse that power; starting with the abolition of the BBC and the NHS, or at very least crippling them both. Britain, or rather England, has just voted to dismantle everything, so this is what we should expect.

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