As I type this, the 1922 Committee for the Conservative Party in the UK has confirmed that it has received 54 letters, which is necessary to hold a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister. If a vote of confidence fails and the majority of members do not express confidence in the Prime Minister, then Boris Johnson will be given formal orders that he should expect to leave Number 10 Downing Street and that his tenure is over.
In looking at why this particular moment in history exists, it is worth taking the long view to see how we got here.
The Blair Labour Government which was swept to power in 1997, oversaw the UK's involvement in two illegal wars which turned out to be both based upon lies. The British people decided that that was acceptable and so in 2000 and 2005, they were returned. Tony Blair left the job of Prime Minister and returned to the Chiltern Hundreds, in relatively quiet circumstances and left his Chancellor Of The Exchequer Gordon Brown in charge.
Brown's Government reasonably led the UK through the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 but Brown had about as much personal charm as a sack of potatoes and so the British people decided to vote for the Opposition as led by a man who was far more exciting. In David Cameron they found a charismatic leader. However, in the 2010 Election the tories who did not secure a majority of members upon the floor of the House of Commons, made a deal with the Liberal Democrats for matters on confidence and supply. Very soon the people found that they did not find anything different than a tory Prime Minister.
The period from 2010 until 2015 is marked as a period of unhappy austerity and with no ability to do much about it. The period of unhappy austerity was bookended by promises from far-right parties who promised to hold a referendum to leave the EU.
One of Cameron's promises, as a result of an outsized piece of influence on the part of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), was top hold that referendum (on Brexit) and on the back of this, the tories won a majority of seats and thus government in their own right.
Brexit has been one giant chain of hateration and holleration since it passed and has brought down the tenures of David Cameron and Teresa May. However the terrible horrible very bad no good hateration and holleration wrought by Brexit was enough to bring down Boris Johnson. The thing that will ultimately turf him from Number 10, is not the incredible incompetence that he has shown in running executive government but rather, the indiscretion in holding parties and gatherings during the middle of a pandemic; while the rest of the citizens of the UK were huddled at home and following the rules in lockdown. This was brought to light in Sue Gray's report detailing lockdown rule-breaking in Downing Street.
Something went wrong with reality after the change of the millennium. In the Anglosphere, the UK, the US and Australia all shifted to the right and we've had a period of rather stupid politics. Tory parties across the Anglosphere, generally have not engaged in any kind of nation building programs but have decided that the best way to keep and retain power is to wash their right-leaning supporters in cash.
In the US this finally came to an end when enough people spoke up. In Australia this finally came to an end when rich people realised that they already have everything and so can not be wooed further. In the UK, there is seemingly no bottom to the tory barrel in terms of economic saturation but what has been found is the violation of decency.
Boris Johnson should not have been Prime Minister. If reality had been operating properly, he would have gone from being Mayor of London, to tory backbencher, then to being on Radio 4 panel shows such as "Just A Minute", the "News Quiz", and maybe "The Unbelievable Truth". What has happened instead is that he although being unsuited to being Prime Minister beforehand, rose to a job which nobody really wanted, and tried to be the comedy backbencher from the front bench. Unfortunately, this is beyond a joke and the punchline doesn't land properly.
If Boris Johnson does lose the vote of confidence, to be held by Conservative MPs from 18:00 to 20:00 BST, then he will be forced to stand down as Prime Minister. That vote will require a majority of Conservative MPs, 180 by my count, if he is to leave at all.
On a side note, this means that the period of the Triumvirate of Howling Morons has come to a close.
https://rollo75.blogspot.com/2016/11/horse-2188-trump-wins-in-2016.html
It just might be possible that by the next British General Election, that Donald Trump and Boris Johnson could be leading the governments of the anglosphere. Of course Australia would have to follow suit at some point and probably appoint Spud Dutton or worse, Christopher Pyne or Treasurer Scott Morrison, to form a grinning triumvirate of Howling Morons across the anglosphere.
- Horse 2188, 9th Nov 2016
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