The right-wing trashmedia in Australia, which has zero stake in geopolitics, is cheerleading any position in which the United States goes to war against Russia over the current omnishambles playing out in and around Ukraine. So far this week, I have heard spokesborgs Dutton, Paterson and Hawke, give their approval for war against Russia; knowing full well that at best Australia will only provide token support as there is no way in Siberia that Australia would offer ground troops at this stage of the conflict. It is really easy to cheer for war when the commitment that you have to make to it, is close to zero.
Having said all this, the media in Australia doesn't even appreciate what the expected outcomes of the conflict actually are. Russia doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO because they either don't want to have NATO sitting directly on their border, or there are elements who are leftover from the Soviet politburo who still feel that Ukraine actually is/should be part of Russia.
The second-largest country by area in Europe after Russia, declared itself to be a neutral state following the breakup of the USSR and the following CIS. At the same time, it formed a limited military partnership with Russia; while also trying to straddle the line by establishing a partnership with NATO in 1994. It is telling that the word 'Ukraine' is itself probably the old Slavic term for "borderland". Ukraine would more than likely like to be left alone but the problem is the top of the right wing Russian government and in particular, Putin.
The way I see it, there are four likely endgames for Russia and Putin. The whole conflict is likely, a worst case scenario as I suspect that Russia would prefer not to go to war, just like Ukraine would prefer not to. I am sure that people with far more power and thought and who have deeper understanding of this nonsense will be able to come up with sub-plots and plans but broadly speaking, there are only four endgames.
1. Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and regime change.
The problem with this is that there is no logical way to hold the country without a proonged and sustained military occupation. This is the path to make the people of Ukraine hate you even more and that opens up the possibility of relatiation on Russian soil.
2. Minor Russian invasion to capture new territory in the east of Ukraine.
This would be like the invasion of Crimea except that in this particular example, that would be a lot of effort, bloodshed and sanctions, for gain which is of minimal and/or marginal and/or questionable value.
3. Recognise Donetsk People's Republic and/or the Luhansk People's Republic; then install Russian troops there officially.
This is sensible on the part of Russia and does give legitimacy to Russia ending troops over the part of Russia but it is in exact opposition to Russia's strategic objectives and just like capturing territory, is is expense with minimal value to be achieved.
4. Do nothing. Maintain pressure.
Do nothing is always the best option when talking about military hardware but it literally achieves nothing. I would have said that this was the most likely scenario but as time wears on, unless some kind of diplomatic solution can be achieved, the likelihood of this continuing is becoming less and less as the chain of events progresses further and further.
Of course the best outcome for Ukraine is that Russia recognises that Ukraine is an independent sovereign nation and leaves it alone. Unfortunately, Russia and its government are acting like a pack of thugs and bullies; so that isn't going to happen. Ironically, the actions taken by Russia actually prove that Ukraine should join NATO precisely because Russia and its government are acting like a pack of thugs and bullies.
I note that French president Emmanuel Macron of all people has spoken to phone to both US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, to discuss the idea of summit talks to discuss "security and strategic stability in Europe" but that is conditional on Russia does not invade Ukraine. Russia more than likely doesn't want to be held to talk because then it would be seen to lose its threat.
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