Apart from the ongoing plague, the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, existential crises such as pollution, sexism, racism, ableism, and the terrible horribleness that is Putin's war on Ukraine because he is an expletive deleted, this thing that people are now most worried about apart from toilet paper shortages and the results of widespread flooding, is that within the week, petrol prices have gone from $1.72 to more than $2.50 per litre at some pumps. In general, most people don't give a brass razoo about massive problems until they have to pay a brass razoo for something.
The psychology of petrol is different to practically any other good that people buy because unlike groceries, internet and telephony, water, gas and electric bills, the price of petrol needs to be shown in big lights from far away so that people will come in and buy the staff.
Of late I have seen three broad reactions to the increase in petrol prices:
- people are panicking in abject terror because it will now cost them more than $100 to fill the tank.
- people are being smug because they drive an electric car and the price increase doesn't affect them an iota.
- people are making jokes about taking their boyfriend/girlfriend somewhere expensive for the evening and then showing pictures of the tower showing prices at a petrol station.
It must be said that although humans have a capacity to remember the past, they generally learn very little from it. The arc of history never tends toward progress no matter what idealists might say but rather, those who have the power to spin a profit from the results of making decisions will always do so; including when those decisions involve causing other people to die.
Buying a car doesn't in principle cause other people to die but it can have the effect of making one's future self suffer in the future. Again, a problem for a future version of one's self is generally something that most people don't give a brass razoo about massive problems until they have to pay a brass razoo for something.
The last time that there was a major oil crisis to speak of, apart from the 2008 global financial crisis which was a blip in peoples' incomes, was all the way back in the 1970s. Assuming Generation X started in 1965, then that means that Generations X, Y, Z and Alpha have never experienced a massive spike in having to have to pay a brass razoo for petrol hikes. Generations X, Y, Z, and Alpha can not remember and the Baby Boomers and what's left of the Silent and Greatest Generations, don't drive in sufficiently large enough numbers anymore for them to be worried. That also means that the kinds of cars which Generations X, Y, Z, and Alpha are currently allowed to buy, have been shaped by not only demands in functionality buy by a distinct lack of pain.
The SUVification of everything came in response to three very big changes in the buying public:
- young people tend not to buy new cars in anything like the amounts that they used to because we have decided not to pay them proper wages any more. The 1965 Mustang sold more than a million units because Baby Boomers, the Silent Generation and the Greatest Generation, were all experiencing rising wages in real terms. That hasn't happened in Australia since Q3 of 1978. In fact, in real terms, wages and the median wage relative to AWOTE have both been on a wobbly slide downhill since then.
- people are on the whole, larger than they were in the 1960s. This is mostly because food companies in an effort to maxinise their profits have been able to sell cheaper quality stuff and more of it. As peoples' impulse control is mostly terrible, then that means that people are bigger. It is a simple fact that bigger people demand bigger cars.
- the combination of both of these things has meant that both the number of second cars in a family has dropped off
It also means that the number of people who now buy a truck as their primary vehicle has also gone up.
These three things together have meant that the market segments for the kinds of cars that people buy now have shifted. It used to be that the top selling cars per month were Falcon, Commodore, Camry, Corolla. Now the top selling cars per month are Ranger, HiLux, Triton, D-Max.
As for the small car market, General Motors told Australia to take a long walk off a short pier and now don't sell anything here at all, Nissan axed the Micra for Australia, and Ford have almost axed the Fiesta except for keeping the ST line around because there still is a niche market for hot hatches.
The marques and models left in the small car market are thus:
Ford Fiesta ST - $33,490
Fiat 500 - $21,750
Kia Picanto - $15,990
Kia Rio - $19,690
Mazda 2 - $21,890
MG 3 - $17,490
Mitsubishu Mirage - $14,490
Peugeot 208 - $15,300
Suzuki Baleno - $19,990
Suzuki Swift - $20,890
Toyota Yaris - $23,740
Volkswagen Polo - $19,290
Admittedly 12 models in the small car market is not a bad selection to pick from and it also has to be said that every single one of these is excellently put together. If you want a car for under $20,000, you still have a choice of 7. I deliberately haven't included cars like the Corolla, Focus or Golf because they are the next class up. Even the Mini is not that Mini, and while the Mazda MX5 and Fiat 124 might physically small enough to meet the criteria, unless you are committed to owning a convertible, they are not going to be your commuter car of choice. If you are though, then well done. You are one of the people who have decided that small things are fun and I applaud you.
Everyone that I have heard complain about the price of petrol going up, owns a car which is bigger than any of these 11. They are living the consequence of their own past self making one's future self suffer in the future. That future has arrived today. Sure, there might very well be good reasons for owning a bigger car but this is one of those cases where current pain is the direct result of one's discretionary decisions in the past.
The SUVification of everything happened because we didn't pay kids properly, because people got bigger, and because car makers are in the business of making profits by selling stuff to people. There are always larger margins to be made on more expensive items and the fact that less people have been buying smaller cars and sedans, is what caused the virtual wipeout of the family sedan and wagon, and the hollowing out of the market for small cars.
Addenda:
Now is the time for me to lay out my own cards in this game:
I have a Mazda 2.
I am one of those people being smug because although I don't drive an electric car, I do take an electric train and public transport to work and the price increase of petrol doesn't affect me very much. I have owned some big cars in the past such as a 6.9L V8 Mercedes-Benz but the cars which I have loved the best were a Ford Ka, the current Mazda 2, and a Peugeot 206.
I suppose that I could be convinced that a Ford Puma might be an okay SUV to own but I'd want it put back on 15 inch wheels and 70 spec tyres so that it could go on dirt roads properly.
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