I have been asked by someone to give my prediction of who is going to win the 2022 Rugby League Grand Final. Even when I pointed out that I do not watch Rugby League, I was assured that my opinion would still be useful as I could probably work it out using data. In this respect I am probably the truest neutral that ever existed because not only am I not tainted by personal preference or prejudice on the subject, if the only thing I have available to me is the data with no context, then I'm not going to be tainted by those things. I have no iron in the fire.
So then, what kind of data am I going use for this endeavour? Wins, draws, losses? No. Points for and against? No. Form over the last five matches? No. Average winning and average losing margin? No. All of these are fine metrics which might be useful for someone who actually cares about the game but I don't. There's one piece of data which is really strange and surprisingly reliable.
You will note that in 20 years of Australian Rules Grand Finals, in a roughly 2:1 ratio you can work out who is going to win, just by looking at the relative angriness of the mascots. It is made a little bit more difficult by trying to decide who would win in a fight between birds/animals/people and the weather but in general whoever you think would win in a fight, will win in the Grand Final.
2002 Lions 75 - 66 Magpies - Cats can rip birds to shreds (1-0)
2003 Lions 134 - 84 Magpies - Cats can rip birds to shreds (2-0)
2004 Power 113 - 73 Lions - Cats should not be playing with electricity (3-0)
2005 Swans 58 - 54 Eagles - I have no idea how to rate bird on bird violence (4-1)
2006 Eagles 85- 84 Swans - I have no idea how to rate bird on bird violence (5-2)
2007 Cats 163 - 44 Power - Cats should not be playing with electricity yet somehow they won? (5-3)
2008 Hawks 115 - 89 Cats - Cats can rip birds to shreds but birds still won? (5-4)
2009 Cats 80 - 68 Saints - Cats have staff (6-4)
2010 Magpies 68 - 68 Saints (no net result)
2010 Magpies 102 - 52 Saints - Birds are a nuisance in nesting season (7-4)
2011 Cats 119 - 81 Magpies - Cats can rip birds to shreds (8-4)
2012 Swans 91 - 81 Hawks - I have no idea how to rate bird on bird violence (9-5)
2013 Hawks 77 - 62 Dockers - Birds are a nuisance in nesting season (10-5)
2014 Hawks 137 - 74 Swans - I have no idea how to rate bird on bird violence (11-6)
2015 Hawks 107 - 61 Eagles - I have no idea how to rate bird on bird violence (12-7)
2016 Bulldogs 89 - 67 Swans - Dogs can rip birds to shreds (13-7)
2017 Tigers 108 - 60 Crows - Cats can rip birds to shreds (14-7)
2018 Eagles 79 - 74 Magpies - I have no idea how to rate bird on bird violence (15-8)
2019 Tigers 114 - 25 Giants - Cats have staff (16-8)
2020 Tigers 81 - 50 Cats - If I had no idea how to rate bird on bird violence, then I have even less of an idea how to rate cat on cat violence (17-9)
2021 Demons 140 - 66 Dogs - Dogs have masters (even if those masters are demons) (18-9)
2022 Cats 133 - 52 Swans - Cats can rip birds to shreds (19-9)
Of itself that seems like a trivial result because anyone can look at a series and draw conclusions from things that aren't there. Humans are pattern seeking machines who find patterns in information they are presented; including when no such pattern exists.
However, when you then apply this same bizarre reasoning to a similar 20 year period of Rugby League Grand Finals, in a roughly 2:1 ratio you can also work out who is going to win, just by looking at the relative angriness of the mascots. Again, it is made a little bit more difficult by trying to decide who would win in a fight between birds/animals/people and the weather but in general whoever you think would win in a fight, will win in the Grand Final.
2002 Roosters 30 – 8 Warriors - I have no idea how a flock of chickens beat a band of Warriors (0-1)
2003 Panthers 18 – 6 Roosters - Cats can rip chickens to shreds (1-1)
2004 Bulldogs 16 – 13 Roosters - Dogs can rip chickens to shreds (2-1)
2005 Tigers 30 – 16 Cowboys - Big Angry Cats can rip people to shreds (3-1)
2006 Broncos 15 – 8 Storm - Does a horse just stand out in the weather? (3-2)
2007 Storm 34 – 8 Sea Eagles - Bad weather stops birds from flying (4-2)
2008 Sea Eagles 40 – 0 Storm - Except if they just stay in the nest (4-3)
2009 Storm 23 – 16 Eels - Bad weather stops danger noodles from wiggling (5-3)
2010 Dragons 32 – 8 Roosters - Big Angry Mythical Beast can rip chickens to shreds (6-3)
2011 Sea Eagles 24 – 10 Warriors - Birds are a nuisance in nesting season (7-3)
2012 Storm 14 – 4 Bulldogs - Bad weather stops dogs from running (8-3)
2013 Roosters 26 – 18 Sea Eagles - I have no idea how to rate bird on bird violence (9-4)
2014 Rabbitohs 30 – 6 Bulldogs - Rabbits can outrun a dog (9-5)
2015 Cowboys 17 – 16 Broncos - Cowboys can wrangle and break-in horses (10-5)
2016 Sharks 14 – 12 Storm - A shark is unaffected by weather on the surface (11-5)
2017 Storm 34 – 6 Cowboys - Bad weather keeps people inside (12-5)
2018 Roosters 21 – 6 Storm - Except if they just stay in the nest (12-6)
2019 Roosters 14 – 8 Raiders - And if they remain inside a chicken coop (12-7)
2020 Storm 26 – 20 Panthers - Bad weather stops cats from running (13-7)
2021 Panthers 14 – 12 Rabbitohs - Big Angry Cats can rip bunnies to shreds (14-7)
2022 Panthers v Eels
I know nothing about the form of the two sides going into this year's Rugby League Grand Final. I do not really care about Rugby League at all and to be honest, I think that the last truly great Rugby League season was 1966 when St George had won their 11th successive Grand Final. A four-tackle rule was introduced to replace unlimited tackles, which in my opinion was done purely to stop St George from winning more; which says that nobody else could honestly work out how to beat them within the rules that existed.
Having said all of that, as someone who not only knows nothing and actively dislikes the game of Rugby League, my pick for the 2022 champion is the Panthers for no other reason than Big Angry Cats can stop Danger Noodles from wiggling.
Aside:
If I was Grand Poohbah and Lord High Everything Else and in charge of the AFL fixtures list then there'd be a round of:
Lions v Tigers
Cats v Dogs
Demons v Saints
Crows v Magpies
Hawks v Eagles
Bombers v Dockers
And the rest I'm not really bothered with because it should be:
Blues v Reds
Kangaroos v Koalas
Giants v Titans
Swans v Ibises
Suns v Moons
Power v Electricity Blackout
but half of those do not exist.
No comments:
Post a Comment