I do not generally write a lot about Australian Rules Football. There are so many nuances about the game that it is simply too much to analyse properly and relate in a thousand word blog post. However, this year something so strange happened at St Kilda Football Club that it warrants special explanation.
The most obvious thing about a game of Australian Rules Football is that it is played on an oval which is massively massive compared to other codes of football. If you were to take just one of the 50 meter rings and the centre circle, then you already have a field which is longer than many Association Football grounds. If you were to use this as the guide on which to populate the number of players you need, then by rights the MCG should need a team of 28 players. However, there are only 18 players on the field in a game of Australian Rules Football; which means that the game is almost by design, chronically underpopulated and the game is not won or lost by how well you can control space but by how efficiently you can fill it.
Most historic formations (that is more than 99% in the history of the game) are variations on playing five lines of three with three rovers, or playing five lines with the extra players over-egging several lines. Broadly speaking the six kinds of players are Full Back, Half Back, Centre, Half Forward, Full Forward, and Ruck Rover. There have been tactical variations over the years such as the Brisbane side in the early 2000s who practically invented "The Flood" where the three rovers would form part of a rolling wave forward to transport the ball to the other end of the field; making use of the progressive overlap on the way through. Likewise, the North Melbourne side of the late 1970s employed "The Wall", where there were no three extra players and they effectively became six Full Backs; which meant that nothing got past them without express written permission. What has happened at St Kilda in 2023 is so strange, that it looks like nothing seen at least in my lifetime.
On the face of it, St Kilda this year have appeared to abandon five lines. In their place, they look like they have maybe four. This leaves roughly 50% of their squad to do tactical damage and to adjust on the fly. This is when they actually look like they have four lines of players. At other times this year, they have appeared to break this down even further to just three loose clumps which occupy very broad Back, Centre and Forward positions.
What I find particularly interesting about this is that this is more of a system than a formation. The skills of a Full Forward aren't markedly different to a Full Back, or any other position for that matter. The thing that is different between a classic Full Forward like Tony Lockett or a Full Back like Sam Kekovich, is almost entirely down to mentality and the positional awareness that comes from playing in a particular position for a long time. Remember, Australian Rules Football is mostly about how efficiently a side can fill the available space and that not only means winning contests for the ball but finding players in loose space who can win uncontested marks.
This 2023 St Kilda side have not been necessarily fantastic at winning contests for the ball. They are frequently understaffed across the field as a result of playing a loose system as opposed to rigid formations. Their last win which was St Kilda 12.10.82 def. Carlton 8.12.60 only shows that they had two more scoring shots. The 22 point margin which looks solid, is as a result of being able to win contests in free places; such that they can get unimpeded shots on goal. So far this season, St Kilda has won 5 of 6 games and their only loss was against Collingwood who have also won 5 of 6 games and are second on the ladder.
Australian Rules Football is way too fluid for me to properly determine exactly what the system is but looking from the outside as a neutral, what I can see are shapes and positions in tension. St Kilda have not been trying to pull opposition players out of position in order to create loose players somewhere else. In playing something as unorganised as four lines which devolve into three clumps up and down the field, what they look like they are doing is creating that free space and loose players by never becoming attached in the first place. It is more difficult in principle to try and mark someone who isn't actually playing in anything that looks like a fixed position.
In some respects, this St Kilda side looks a lot like the Netherlands' Total Football which was deployed to almost success in the late 1980s. The thing that eventually killed off Total Football was the even more brutal efficiency of a newly reunited Germany side, which played the most rigid 4-4-2 formation ever. Now I don't know if the counter to whatever the heck St Kilda is doing is some kind of return to brutal formation, which would likely be 4-4-4-3-3, or 5-4-3-3-3, or even 6-3-3-3-3, but I do know that St Kilda are not going to win football matches by monster records. They do not need to. The system is likely not capable of delivering massive margins and I do not think that it needs to. If a team can reliably win by one or two goals and change every week, then that's good enough.
If I may be sold bold, I will suggest that St Kilda are quietly looking like they may win the flag. I will also suggest that if they win the 2023 flag, they will absolutely not win the 2024 flag. If I can notice this as a member of the commentariat then the professional staff whose job it is to yell stuff into phones and slam them into the desks in the boxes from way up high, have also certainly noticed this and will be madly scribbling on whiteboards. Meanwhile I think that St Kilda will look constantly on the edge of total disarray and lose contests on the ball all over the place, but quietly rack up wins by 1.5, 2.3, 0.4, 1.2 et cetera. The Saints will not go marching in but they will find free space and very quietly walk it in.
Aside:
My team Hawthorn will need to build a bigger trophy room this year because they will come home with the biggest wooden spoon in 127 years.
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