August 13, 2013

Horse 1527 - Abbott To Be The Next Prime Minister

Twenty-Five days out from an Australian Federal Election and trends usually start to solidify; this time around is no real exception. Even with the inevitable bounce-back that the Labor Party has gained by the reappointment of Kevin Rudd, Galaxy, Newspoll and Nielsen polls still show a slight swing towards the Coalition.
Plugging these figures into the standard swing calculations and plotting it against trends on a week-by-week basis and I've found something rather odd. The trend line appears to be heading to an asymptotic parallel which is 2.7% in favour of the Coalition. Curiously though, the two-party preferred trend seems to give the total number of votes nationwide to the ALP with 51.6% of the popular vote.

So what does a 2.7% swing look like?
Basically it means that three "independents" will remain, Wilkie, Bandt (Green) and Katter (KAP) and that the Liberal Party will pick up 3 seats in Victoria, 3 seats in Queensland and 5 seats in NSW.

I think that it's fair to say that the final result will be:
LNP: 86 seats
ALP: 62 seats
KAP: 1 seats
Grn: 1 seats
What that means is that Tony Abbott will be appointed as Prime Minster on September 9th.
... and that is probably the least interesting thing about this election. More worrying is what is going to happen after the election.

The next Federal Election will probably occur c.Aug 2016 and with the exception of WA, all states and territories will have their own elections before it. This means that there is a possible window of opportunity in which all states and territories could have Liberal/National Coalition governments; since it's been expressly stated that the GST will not increase without the consent of all states and territory governments, that might be entirely possible from mid-2014 onwards. If so, it would see an increase of the GST from 10% to 12.5% or even 15% for the financial year 2015-16 onwards.

Of course I have been wrong before (Horse 1359).

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