https://www.reuters.com/world/us-recognize-independence-two-small-pacific-nations-biden-2023-09-25/
President Joe Biden met Pacific island leaders for a second White House summit in just over a year on Monday, part of a charm offensive aimed at curbing inroads by China into a region Washington considers strategically crucial.
Before welcoming the island leaders, gathered under the umbrella of the 18-nation Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), Biden announced U.S. diplomatic recognition of two more Pacific islands nations, the Cook Islands and Niue.
- Reuters, 25th Sep 2023
US President Joe Biden is meeting with the Presidents and Prime Ministers of 18 Pacific Island nations this week (Australia and New Zealand are included in this), to strengthen US economic and strategic defence interests in the region. The area covered by the land masses of these 18 Pacific Island nations is you exclude Australia and New Zealand would probably fit into a size of smaller than that of suburban Sydney. However, if you include the ocean covered by the land masses of these 18 Pacific Island nations, then you end up with a total area which is bigger than three lower-48-state Americas combined. The Pacific is a big big wide open space of calm blue ocean; one might even call this vast calm quiet ocean 'pacific'.
The problem that the United States quite rightly sees is that if the giant panda ever wakes up, then just like the British, the French, the Germans, and the Portuguese were able to conquer, colonise, and occupy all of these nations with a force smaller than a pocket flotilla, China will be able to as well. The United States knows this from its own history; having overthrown the government of Hawaii, and taking possession of places like the Philippines, Guam, and half of Samoa. The United States knows that China could take over the Pacific because it knows full well that if it wanted to, it could have already done so.
Realistically, what hope do any of the Pacific Island nations have against China? Sure, a country like Belgium which was literally created out of thin air in 1848 was able to hold up the might of the fully mechanised German Army in 1914 for a whole 11 days but even that's only 11 days. Ukraine has held out against Russia for months and months because Russia's heart truly isn't in the war (obviously by demonstration), but the Pacific Island nations do not have access to such resources. If China wanted to capture Nauru for instance, then could encircle the island with six ships and starve the population until they got what they wanted. I imagine that the whole 'conflict' would be over within a month and without a shot being fired.
This brings up the really obvious question of "why?" Why would the United States want to bother trying to establish ties with the Pacific Island nations when they, just like China, both fully well know that the economic value of these island nations to them is less than zero? The immediate answer appears to be about strategic defence but as the United States also fully well knows, the last time that there was a major conflict in the Pacific, the only strategic purpose of the islands from a military perspective is that they act as fixed aircraft carriers and even then, that's highly limited. From that standpoint, the only purpose of occupying one island is to get to the next one.
I personally think that the reason is actually that the United States wants clear passage to Australia; which actually is of strategic value, as Australia has the ability to provide actual resources. By being friendly with the Pacific Island nations, the United States has the ability to waltz in and out of Australia with their guns and ships and planes, restock and refuel and feed their equipment and staff, and generally swan about as they always have done.
From any objective perspective, if this is a series of either/or decisions, then the Pacific Island nations choosing to side with the United States or China as the big dog in the region, near enough makes no difference as far as I can tell. We seem to be living in a kosmos which is still coloured by the specter of post WW2 communism but given that that same communism in China has managed to lift more than 300 million people out of poverty, then I really wonder what the net difference is. So much of global politics is people in offices moving trillions of dollarpounds around, while ordinary people do the work for them. As far as the Pacific Island nations are concerned, does it really make that much of a difference in real terms, if those transactions are in US Dollars or Renminbi Yuan?
Take Australia as an example. Can you imagine a scenario where we pay billions for military hardware which doesn't and never will exist, only to have that deal struck off by big brother who wants us to pay for their military hardware? How about having industry set up by the big firms of big brother, only to have them dismantled and shut down, because of the whims of management in that country? How about trade agreements which are actually one-sided ransom attacks, because the physical bigness of big brother's economy is enough to dictate terms of trade? These things have and did happen and not with China as some imagined object open whom we are supposed to direct two minutes of hate to but the United States with whom we are friends.
All of this makes you wonder what Australia gets out of this. Our cousins across the ditch in New Zealand, effectively scuppered ANZUS and didn't even bother to enter AUKUS. Presumably ANZAC, which by the way isn't even a treaty, would still hold up as the two nations who are enmeshed on the sporting field are on amicable terms. As for what Australia actually gets out of a defence pact with the United States, I very much fail to see it. For more than 70 years, we have followed the United States into pointless conflict after pointless conflict; partly caused by the United States' military-industrial-complex being used as a perpetual stimulus package in what looks like very much outdated Keynesianism.
China on the other hand, has been quietly cultivating relationships with nations across Africa; in places where civility and soft power have been a better alternative to the legacy of colonialism. The Belt & Road program is almost overtly about generating favour and making favourable deals for future resources. China can not very do that in the 18 Pacific Island nations because none of them are physically big enough to make things like railways and very big motorways make much sense. Nor do I think that the 18 Pacific Island nations like the idea of having US Navy Bases on their island, when they can look at places like Okinawa or the Philippines and see how shabbily they've been treated.
A friend of mine who is from Tonga, said that if the United States was truly serious about peace and stability in the region, then the best thing that they could do is give Hawaii back to the King and leave everyone alone. If you want to make peace with people, bring a bowl of fruit and not a spear. To that end, I do not know what if anything that the United States has brought to the table. The best thing that they could bring is ham and pineapple.
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