Horse 1163 - NSW Election 2011 - A Wobbly Seat To Sit In

On the eve of the NSW State Election, I thought I'd turn the spotlight on one particular electorate; namely that of the seat of Heffron which none other than the Premier Kristina Keneally herself sits.

Heffron was created in 1973 during the time of Sir Robert Askin as Premier. The 1973 election was called early after Askin wanted to take advantage of a state which was unhappy with Gough Whitlam's Federal Labor Government.
Heffron was itself won by Laurie Brereton who held the former seat of Randwick, then moved into the new electorate. He held the job for 27 years before moving to Federal poltics, and the seat has only been held by Deirdre Grusovin and Kristina Keneally since; both are Labor members.
Interestingly, if you look at the post-election map (and prior to the 2010 Penrith by-election) Sydney was split into an almost exactly rich-poor divide; split by the Parramatta River and the harbour; except for Cronulla.

At the last election, Keneally held Heffron purely on the primary vote and it didn't even go to preferences. Nominally (and I hope I've done the calculations correctly) it should require at least a swing of 23.6% against Keneally to unseat her.

If we assume that the Sydney Morning Herald was correct in its assumptions and Labor would be left with 13 seats in the parliament (read Horse 1151), then Heffron would be one of the 13 Labour seats left, with a new margin of about 3.6%-3.8%.

The problem is that Keneally herself could be the undoing of this seat. When swings are calculated and shown in funky slidy graphics on election night they are assumed to be uniform across the state; I can assure you that they are most decidedly not. Ms Keneally could be subject to an even harsher swing in her own electorate just like Former PM John Howard was in the Division of Bennelong in the 2007 Federal Election.


I personally think that it's entirely feasible after this election that Kristina Keneally might lose her own seat and if that happens, then who knows who'd be the leader of a Labor Opposition? Paul Lynch of Liverpool? John Robertson of Blacktown? Nathan Rees of Toongabbie again? Noreen Hay of Wollongong? I honestly have no idea. The job would pretty well much be a poisoned challis, with the only prospect of being replaced before the 2015 election.

So how's this for a deal Labor? Put me up in the seat of Heffron in time for the 2015 election campaign. Sure, I've never gone into politics before but since it doesn't necessarily bother me if I face political oblivion, then I'm perfectly suited to run for Premier of NSW - that's where Ms Keneally is headed.

I'd be a brilliant Premier... well, I couldn't exactly do any worse than the one you've got could I?