Horse 1151 - NSW Election 2011 - Another Turn on the Swings

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/keneally-plunges-to-record-low-20110215-1av7d.html

THE Keneally government is heading for a defeat of ''historic proportions'' at next month's election, according to the first poll of the election campaign, which shows Labor could be reduced to as few as 13 seats in the new Parliament.

- Sydney Morning Herald. 16th Feb 2011.

In Horse 1149, I'd made some assumptions based on an expected swing against the Labor Party of 12% in keeping with similar results in other elections. If however, the Sydney Morning Herald is to be believed then this changes everything.

For the Labor Party to be left with a quite frankly pathetic baker's dozen of seats, would require a swing against them of 20.5%. Assuming a uniform swing of 18.8% against Labor and towards the coalition with the remainder produces the following results:

Liberal 58

Nationals 17

(making a coalition of 75)

Labour 13

Greens 2

Indies 3

Kristina Keneally would retain her own seat of Heffon on that assumption but even then, the backlash might be against her personally.

Interestingly it produces a rather odd situation. The Liberals could in theory form government in their own right without the need to form a coalition. This in itself changes the dynamic of the house and the position and role of the National Party in NSW.
The Nationals could take several positions. They could reject forming a coalition government which is the equivalent of political suicide, or they might even occupy a very special position in Australian politics.

If the Nationals were to form coalition government with the Liberals, they might adopt a position as they have done in WA following the 2008 state election:

"We are not prepared to go into a traditional coalition so we'll be accepting ministries based on being independent ministers, that reserve the right to exempt ourselves from Cabinet and vote against an issue on the floor of the Parliament if it's against the wishes of the people we represent."

- WA Nationals leader, Brendon Grylls. 14 Sep 2008 (from the ABC)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/14/2364004.htm

If this was the case, then potentially the Nationals could sit on either side of the floor as their whims dictated. They would have 17 seats versus Labor's 13, which means that they could occupy the position of "opposition in residence" and Labour would be the "opposition in exile".
They could in practice cross the floor against legislation that they didn't like, and put up a louder voice than the Labor Party. Of course it would still pass because the Liberals would have the ability to ferry anything through the lower house by virtue of numbers but at least a different sort of voice would be heard.

This general position has been occupied before. In 1983 when Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen started his sixth consecutive term as Premier of Queensland, the then Liberal leader Terry White (yes, that Terry White who would later start a chemist's chain of shops) and in 1986 William Knox, both regularly led the Liberal Party to cross the floor because someone quite rightly stood against Sir Joh's memorable catch phrase and instruction: "Don't you worry about that".

This time if the numbers fall out, then the Nationals can worry and should "worry about that" because they'll be the most credible opposition on the floor of the house in NSW.