May 06, 2011

Horse 1186 - Clegg's Next Steps

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13303862
Lord Ashdown said he believed that Mr Cameron had made a private agreement with Mr Clegg about the way the fight over the future of the electoral system would be conducted, and there had been a "breach of faith".
He said: "If the Conservative party funds to the level of 99% a campaign whose central theme is to denigrate and destroy our leader, there are consequences for that."

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg I feel is at the crossroads of not only his political career but possibly that of the party itself. The referendum to bring in the Alternative Vote will either represents what is both a wasted opportunity and indeed the very death knell of the party, or perhaps a chance for rebirth and relevance.

Essentially during the AV referendum lead in, the "No" Campaign was being funded by the Conservative Party. The actual campaign itself was for the most part a series of half-truths and straight out lies:

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/05/campaign-figure-blunkett
Today's Times (£) quotes David Blunkett, the former Labour home secretary, admitting that the No campaign's figure putting the cost of AV at £250m was "made up". He said:
"We are in the middle of an election campaign. People in elections use made-up figures. I have never used the £250m figure. It [AV] would undoubtedly cost more but I have used an extra £90m."
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The Electoral Commission said at the time that it was powerless to do anything, as electoral law covers false claims against candidates, but referendums have none.

Then of course there is the comment from PM Cameron himself, which I first heard on the BBC World Service, but was reprinted in The Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/av-referendum/8491800/AV-The-No-Campaign-in-quotes.html
“It’s about what you feel in your gut – about the values you hold dear and the beliefs you instinctively have. And I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong"
- David Cameron, British PM, 05/05/11

There is of course a very good reason why Mr Cameron feels it in his gut that AV is wrong, because as a Tory it is.
If we look at British Elections going all the way back until roughly the formation of the current party political system within the parliament, there have only been two Prime Ministers who weren't Tories who not only went the full term but were returned to power as the sitting Prime Minister. One was Tony Blair who won in 1997, 2001 and 2006 and the other was the 3rd Viscount Palmerston, who won the 1859 and 1865 elections.
Cameron quite rightly assumes that if the British Public were actually allowed to be given a more democratic system to elect their parliament with, then that would effectively spell the end of the normalcy of Tory dominated politics in the UK, which is a tradition which extends back to 1762.

So then, if Cameron and the Tories have acted in bad faith, what is open the Nick Clegg and the LibDems?

The first answer might be to formally breakup the coalition and try to form government with Labour. The problem is that if you add Labour's 258 to the LibDem's 57, you only get 315 which is 11 short of the 326 required to form government.
Of course you could always ask the Scottish National Party, Sinn Féin, Plaid Cymru and the Social Democratic and Labour Party to try and help you and between them they'd all spill to 337 which is fine, but that would be like trying to organise the heads of a Hydra.

The second answer would be to run a Vote of No Confidence. If that were to happen, then it would probably most likely carry and there'd be another General Election but this time around the polls might be either favourable or against the LibDems, so the gamble might not be worth it.

The third option for Clegg is this:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13303885
Nick Clegg is facing calls from the party's local government chiefs to step down as leader after heavy losses in the English council elections.
Gary Long, ousted party leader on Nottingham City Council, said he must quit immediately, while Ken Ball, party leader on Chorley council, said he had "let the party down".

Ultimately what what that prove though? That the Tories were right?

If the "Alternative Vote is too difficult to understand" as the Tories have suggested throughout the campaign, and Australians have been using a similar system to select Members of Parliament for 80 years, then may the Tories are correct...

... The Great British Public really are stupid thickos, and it's a good thing too otherwise we'd have oiks running the country.

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