November 20, 2012

Horse 1357 - addditional

In Horse 1357 which was published on September 3, or just over 9 weeks before the 2012 Presidential Election, I made the following prediction: that Romney would win the election 275 over Obama 263.
When you compare the Electoral College results and note that Obama won 332 to Romney 206, it would appear on the face of it that I was hideously wrong. However if you look on a state by state basis, it looks very different indeed.

It would appear that I picked every single state in the Union except for Florida and California. Florida I had expected to turn Republican but obviously the Latino vote was retained in that state. California which I said would be 6.1m Obama and 6.1m Romney in Horse 1396 turned out to be 6.4m Obama and 4.1m Romney. Less Californians turned out than I anticipated.

It's also worth noting that with the exception of the single vote from  Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, every single state of the union ended with a result identical to 2008. That doesn't show anything particularly interesting except for electoral intertia, that is that things show a tendancy to keep doing whatever it is that they're already doing.

Still, 48/50 states isn't bad is it? is it?

1 comment:

jaggedpirate said...

But the fact that you predicted California Republican was predictably proved to be a risky gamble.