Horse 2899 - Election '22

 "How come the Prime Minister (Scott Morrison) just doesn't call an election?"

Ah yes. The use of a negative construction of a sentence to denote displeasure about a thing not occuring. When people ask about a thing not happening, they are expressing an impatient desire for the thing to happen very quickly.

The reason dear reader, why the Prime Minister (Scott Morrison) doesn't call the election is so obvious that even Blind Freddy can see it - he'd lose.

If I plug the August Newspoll data into my swing calculator spreadsheet, which runs six separate swings for the six states (the ACT and NT are included in SA), then the Morrison Government would be facing electoral wipeout. Based on the current polling data, I would estimate that the election if it was held this Saturday would fall thus:

Lab - 90

L/NP - 55

Oth - 6

Calling an election right now, would be like staring intently at a hand grenade, then pulling the pin out, then hoping for the best.

The departments of political parties whose job it is to analyse data (which I am sure is far more advanced than my simple single spreadsheet) and then design strategy to win elections, would be looking at that and holding off. I wouldn't blame the Prime Minister for not wanting to call an election because he wants to remain being the Prime Minister.

A constant whinge of those whose party happens to be in opposition at the time is that the Prime Minister should call an election sooner rather than later. This particular power remains with the government of the day for entirely sensible reasons. Rather than having two-year fixed terms like the US House of Representatives, or four year fixed terms, the compromise from the Constitutional Conventions was for three years, except with the government retaining the power to call normal course elections as much as six months earlier, in keeping with the existing prerogatives of Westminster Parliaments. The mere fact that the Government can call an election earlier, is actually a bonus. If we had fixed term four year parliaments, then we'd be having the discussion about an election as much as eighteen months later than what's possible under the current system.

I think that that's sensible. A two year term puts politicians into almost constant election campaign cycle; which means that governance tends to be far more short sighted. A four year cycle is too long and bad government can not be removed quickly enough. NSW has seen this recently with the  Iemma/Rees/Kenneally Labor Government and the Berejiklian Liberal Government. 

I think that the current Morrison Government is objectively bad and has proven that it is going to take repeated decisions which the economic and authoritarian right of the Liberal Party likes but which has demonstrably bad consequences for the people at large. When those consequences have come home to visit because the government has already uncoupled the machinery, there aren't very many levers left to pull which do anything meaningful. When good people are in charge, the people rejoice but when bad people rule, the people groan. 

However, governments in Australia are not necessarily rewarded or punished for doing a bad job. Incumbency is a massive advantage and in general, Australians like to put political parties on longer streaks than just one term. Mr Morrison became Prime Minister in 2018; so from a purely statistical point of view, he'd be better off holding the election in 2022. 

I think that the forseeable timeline of events are that as vaccination rates climb, at some point the country will open up again. People's memory as far as politics is concerned lasts not much more than about 10 days; which means that from about late October onwards, the polls will naturally tighten as Christmas approaches. I do not think that an election would be called before Christmas but in the wake of Christmas when good feelings are on the rise, we might start to get an inkling of when the election will be called.

The complication which arises is that whoever wins the election, also wins the duty of passing the budget. Up to and including if the election is held on 21st May 2021, the newly minted government will hold the purse strings. 

The exception is if the Mr Morrison decides to not hold a House election at the same time; in which case we will have a Senate only election in May and the House election can ride to as late as November. I do not think that the government would want to send people to the polling stations twice in a year, as that might also result in political suicide.

Largely because people won't have been on holiday in 2021, the usual faffing about in January simply won't happen. This gives the Morrison Government a wider window in which to call the election and I think that it is likely to be called in January for a 'snap' February Election.

The current fall of how seats are distributed is such that the Morrison Government only needs a nationwide vote of 48% on a 2PP basis and that would return the government to power with 76 seats and with Bob Katter as perennial bench warmer, that leaves everyone else in the chamber with 74.

I'm picking 19th Feb 2022 - the best part about making predictions like this is that I am consistently wrong.