The Prime Minister (Scott Morrison) has a problem. Owing to the fact that the Commonwealth of Australia has this pesky little thing called parliamentary democracy and that Section 28 of the Constitution¹ says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General." he is obliged at some point to ask the Governor-General to dissolve the parliament and call an election.
Oh democracy, what trouble hast thou wrought?
The last Newspoll which was published on 3rd October, has Labor ahead of the Liberal/National Coalition 53-47 on a two party preferred basis. Admittedly, Newspoll is owned by Galaxy (it was spun out of News Corp in May 2015) and so although it is more neutral in stance than it used to be, it is still deeply flawed and is prone to getting the nature of reality wrong.
53-47 on a 2PP basis, equates to the following allocation of seats (assuming that there is a uniform swing across the country and assuming that there will be some seats such as Kennedy where it doesn't matter a fig, which way the wind blows):
87 - Labor
58 - Lib/Nat/LNP
6 - Others
Given that there are 151 seats in the parliament and you need 76 in order to claim government, then if the election was called tomorrow, then assuming that there would be the normal period after the writs for the election were issued, then there would be a Labor government returned with Anthony Albanese as the likely Prime Minister.
While the Government in theory can call an election at any time as one of the privileges of being in government, making people go to the polls chances losing government.
The Morrison Government may call a double election right up until the 21st of May 2022 and if does not, then 21st of May 2022 is the very last day that a House and Half Senate election must be held. That is also the last date that a half Senate election must be held.
However, if the Morrison Government decides to decouple the House and Senate elections, they could in theory hang on like a very bad small until the 3rd of September 2022².
Given that the Morrison Government is reviled in parts of the country which have those really weird things in politics which are called memories, morals, and standards, then to call an election when you are behind is political suicide. I calculate that they'd need a 50.9 - 49.1 lead in order just to break even. In that case, the L/NP would gain 75 seats and then have to count on Bob Katter who would be kingmaker.
My suspicion is that Mr Morrison is likely to wait until after Christmas before he even begins to think about calling an election. That will be sufficient time for the restrictions to be lifted across the country, for everyone to have had a nice Christmas and New Year, and for everyone to have forgotten that the Morrison Government used taxpayer dollars to fund car parks, sporting facilities in coalition electorates, excused actual rape within the parliament building, refused to setup an ICAC, and excused secret donations to the former Attorney-General in his legal defence.
This leave Mr Morrison with a dilemma. Let's assume that he calls an election early in the year. That would mean that there is a risk of losing the election and then handing the power of the purse to Labor, who would then hand down the Appropriation Bill No.1 (Budget 2022-23) in the normal manner on the second Tuesday in May.
Let's assume that Appropriation Bill No.1 will be in Parliament by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg early. It will have to include loads of election sweeteners, which might be enough to pacify the electorate who otherwise would see the Liberal Party's right-wing formula undigestible. That might also risk the electorate spitting out the government like a piece of used chewing gum.
Lets assume that Appropriation Bill No.1 is handed down and that the Liberal/National Coalition loses government. The first act of any incoming Labor Government would be to rescind Appropriation Bill No.1 and replace it with their own appropriation bill.
Of course if Appropriation Bill No.1 isn't presented to the Parliament by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and the L/NP lose Government, then the power of the purse is handed to Labor by default.
What to do?
Mr Morrison can not call an election in 2021 because he risks political oblivion. He must therefore face the less precarious position of calling an election in 2022 but risks having that budget interfere with the very process of the election. In the ideal political world, Governments would hand down the budget in May; then call an election in June or July, in the knowledge that they have secured supply. Mr Morrison played that game in 2019 and time has rolled on.
¹http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/xx9.html
²http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s157.html
01/07/22. This term expires.
11/07/22. +10 days for the writs to be issued.
07/08/22. +27 days date limit for the nomination of the candidates.
07/09/22. +31 days date limit for the polling.
03/09/22. The last Saturday before that limit.
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