Horse 3525 - No Deal, No Outcome, No Power, No Projection

Not for the first time an overseas "diplomatic mission" by Donald Trump, has achieved practically nothing. On this occasion, Trump's visit to China to meet with Xi Jingping, not only didn't result in any kind of discernable outcome but also didn't really improve relations between the two nations. In fact, the one thing that it did manage to achieve, was a glib confirmation that the projection of American power underneath President Trump, is weaker than at any point in the past 100 years.

Trump who when asked about the extent that the financial situation of Americans motivated his negotiations with Iran said, "Not even a little bit. I don't think about Americans' financial situation", has now extended that stance of apathy to Taiwan. When asked if the United States would step in a defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Trump said that he wouldn't send troops in.

Now there's two ways of looking at this. Either this is President Trump trying to appease the Chinese government and semi-normalise relations between the United States and China by adopting a less belligerent stance, or this is the United States openly admitting that it actually doesn't care. This is in stark contrast to the Biden Administration who managed to walk the line by saying that they would defend Taiwan in the even of a Chinese invasion, while at the same time being more open and friendly to the Chinese government.

All of this stands in relation to a reasonably well known statement by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), that their ten-year plan in 2017 was to have the necessary hardware and manpower to at least be able to invade and take and hold Taiwan by the end of the plan. The timeframe for that plan is such that the end of the plan is 2027; which happens to be getting closer to the end of the Trump Administration in terms of the run of events, but more importantly, is now only seven months away. One suspects that an actual Chinese invasion of Taiwan would rather be a bit like the Glorious Revolution in England in 1688, with a few token skirmishes but ultimately a walkover.

Now as the wheels of history turn and turn, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems not only possible but plausible. As for me, I live in Australia; which is also an ocean and a bit away so you'd think that it wouldn't affect me in the first instance but what is being expressed here is something bigger. It is not a leap to suggest that if the United States would not defend Taiwan, then it follows that it would also not defend Australia.

We already know that under the terms of the AUKUS "deal" which was perpetrated by the Morrison Government, that Australia has signed up to pay $368bn for imaginary submarines. Everyone already knows by now that the number of submarines which will be delivered will be exactly zero, and that all of this was the United States extracting extortion monies as tribute. However, Trump's statements that if the United States would not send troops in to defend Taiwan are a more general stance (which it is not unreasonable to assume), then equally sending troops and hardware to Australia which is also an ocean away, is equally not likely.

As it is, the United States already sees Australia as nothing more than a supply base for its stuff and just another big aircraft carrier. Big US companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, extract our gas and resources and literally don't pay us anything in taxation measures. The morons in government who cooked those deals will never have to answer for their abject stupidity. More worryingly though, is that there is in fact no obligation whatsoever under the terms of AUKUS for any military intervention at all. Trump is already actively agitating to dismantle NATO, on the basis that the other nations don't pay their way, but what this week has told us is that actually the United States just doesn't see the economic benefit in projecting its power any more.

Of course it will send in guns and ships until the balance shifts in places like the Strait of Hormuz, but that's because of the immediate and direct effect of the transit of oil tankers through the Middle East. Again, the United States literally couldn't have cared a jot and didn't care a jot about the regime in Iran until the point when its own direct interests were disturbed.

Trump was able to blast his clarion over the fact that China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing aircraft but even that was tempered by the fact that Boeing stock fell about 4% in value almost immediately. Trump who likes to think of himself as a dealmaker, walked away with the basic military and economic frictions between the United States and China moving nowhere whatsoever. Except, that we did learn that the United States has at least openly admitted now, that not only is it weaker than it used to be but that it chooses to be so.

Horse 3524 - l'Appel du Vide

I am a human in possession of a body with systems that I do not understand and with a brain that I also do not understand. I am not equipped with any kind of system manual, nor do I fully understand the signals that the various systems give me. Emotions are things that I would prefer not to have. Pain seems useful to me as a warning system but as someone who has been injured and damaged physically, certain aspects of this system aren't reliable either. 

And then there's this. 

What am I supposed to do with a sudden, intrusive, and equally fleeting desire to throw myself off of this platform and fall roughly 13 storeys below?

I have no desire to die. I have no need to commit suicide. I certainly have no wish to feel what I imagine is firstly abject terror from falling and then whatever pain would follow from going splat on the pavement floor below. There is no logical or sensible reason why I would think this. Apparently though, this kind of phenomenon is way more common than anyone dares to admit. It even has a name - "l'appel du vide", or "The Call Of The Void".

From what I can determine, the closest thing which comes to a rational explanation of why a perfectly functioning and presumably rational brain would come up with such an irrational thought, is actually paradoxically self-preservation. A brain which unconsciously produces such an insane and destructive thought, reviles itself and actually performs a metaphorical slight of hand in making itself reinforce the desire to live.

Apparently the Call Of The Void applies more generally to doing dangerous things, rather than just hurl one's self off of a high place. Other examples that I read about included wanting to touch a hot stovetop, drive the wrong way down the motorway into oncoming traffic, or running into traffic.

It also appears to be triggered more often by people who have suffered some kind of physical trauma with lasting effects (so this means that I fit the classic profile).

What this suggests is that what is going on, is kind of like a bodge job patch update, for a brain which already has suffered trauma to create and test a false alarm. Further to this, what might be going on is a sudden an immediate spike of the stress hormone cortisol; which given that I am now working in a way more stressful job, looks like a greater sensitivity to external cues in the environment and not some latent death wish.

The fun thing about being in possession of my brain is that I immediately wanted to pull this whole phenomenon apart and look at the various components because I am insanely curious. The truth is that have way too many people who rely upon me, to even allow me to entertain this as even 1% plausible.

But it's still as weird as all get out and that's kind to interesting

 to think about.