Horse 901 - How Is It A $12bn Disaster If Not A Cent Has Been Spent Yet?

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/national/national/general/metro-a-12b-disaster-says-buried-report/1229868.aspx

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/07/29/1217097241025.html?feed=fairfaxdigitalxml

There are very few thing for which I generally agree with governments but the decision to bury the Steer Report is something which I whole heartedly agree with. The reasons for this I think are as follows:
Among the criticisms is that the north-western half of the metro would service a low-density and fairly affluent area that is wedded to its cars. With 30 kilometres of tunnel, it would be hugely expensive with no guarantee of high patronage, the report warns. Elsewhere in the world, metros are specifically designed to move people between high-density residential areas and employment centres such as the CBD.
"The north-west metro concept stretches into a 30-kilometre tunnelled route into low-density, high-income suburbs, remote from the congested western corridor, the busiest in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area," the report says. "It would be a brave decision to assume that car users in the low-density north-west can be converted to metro users in large numbers."

Mr Steel, perhaps I should tell you the story of a certain city on the other side of the world. A city of which you might be familiar with. A city whose reknown is known the world over for its forward thinking when it came to underground railways. I refer of course to London and THE Underground. That little rail network which you helped turn around... does it ring a bell for you?

Between 1935 and 1940, the then London Passenger Transport Board spent a staggering £42.2m on expanding the Underground. Bear in mind that this was: a) during the height of the depression and b) breaking ground into areas where the network had not yet been. Lines were built in seemingly open fields in some cases; not because of the immediate economic viability, but of the expected physical expansion of the city itself. Admittedly a little thing known as the Blitz halted expansion but you'd expect that.

Laying Underground lines in areas where the population was expected to grow to rather than merely following the existing trends, requires more testicular fortitude than the plan which the Iemma Government has tabulated. Bear in mind that a line to Castle Hill has been promised since 1891 so I guess that 117 years to do something is actually on schedule.

"It is likely that these assumptions are leading to modelled estimates of transfer to metro over an unrealistically broad area, especially from car." The Government expects the north-west metro to attract 25 per cent of its demand from a shift from private cars, which the Steer report calls a "high proportion". "Demand models sometimes significantly overestimate the propensity to mode shift."

With the Rudd Government announcing a Carbon Trading Scheme on top of existing petrol prices, and the fact that the North-West of Sydney when asked had actually asked for a rail link to the city before the M2 was built and the results that the M2 is now a 30km carpark every morning and evening, that the estimates would be about right. Certainly when I take a train home is crowded to the hilt.

"There is a risk of overcrowding on the CityRail network as demand is rising at rates, if they continue, [that] will lead to a serious deterioration in … reliability." But the metro failed to address Sydney's busiest corridors, and "its ability to relieve what will become very congested CityRail routes is limited".

So what is it Mr Steel? You can't have overcrowding and say that "Demand models sometimes significantly overestimate the propensity to mode shift" at the same time can you? I would have thought that if you overestimate traffic flows then you'd design the system to cope with those estimates and thus future-proof the system. Something which in London as a result of your own damn recommendations, they are currently doing with the Crossrail projects, which I should point out have had £16bn allocated or more than double that of Sydney.

About the only person talking sense is Justin Kelly, who is quoted as saying:
"Mr Steel's work did not adequately address the question of how to deliver on the Government's election commitment to deliver rail services to the north-west by 2015. The Government has a clear commitment to deliver rail services to Castle Hill by 2015 and Rouse Hill by 2017. So when advice was received that took it away from the plan we'd outlined to the people of the north-west, it was never going to be accepted."

What? A government talking about delivering on a promise? Surely you jest. No? If not, then Mr Kelly, you should be Premier for actually wanting to be answerable to the good and fair people of NSW.