Hello ladies and germs,
Roll up, roll up one and all, to the festival of democracy 2022 - The Bout To Knock The Other Out.
In the Red Corner is the Australian Labor Party led by Anthony Albanese. In the Blue Corner is the Liberal Party and their hangers on the National Party; led by Scotty Morrison from Marketing.
...and thus the gamification of the election process has begun.
This afternoon as I write this (29th Nov 2021), the announcement was made by the Prime Minster (Scott Morrison) that the Federal Budget would be handed down on March 29th, 2022. Immediately this sets into motion, the nerds and the geeks and the boffins, with their calculators and their calendars, to determine when the next Federal Election will take place.
If the Budget is handed down on March 29...
Then plus 33 days (per the Electoral Act 1918 and the Constitution) is May 1.
The first available Saturday is May 7.
That means to say that May 7 is likely to be the date of the next Federal Election because when you also factor in that there must be at least 31 days before the election and the appointment of the next Senate term which must take place on Jul 1, then that leave precious few dates when the election can be called.
The most likely date for the Federal Election is May 7; which means that the Budget and any potential promises that will be made in it, will still be fresh in the minds of Joe Violent, Karen Konspiracy, Brandon Racist, and Jill D'Yownreserch; who have been plucked from the centre of politics and redeposited way way to the right, and who now pull the rest of politics toward them.
Contained within the ticking time-bomb of when the next election will happen, is the publication of the proposed set of sitting dates for parliament in 2022. There are just 10 days scheduled from 1st Jan until Sep 30.
Why would I care about September 30? Quite apart from the election, the handing down of the Budget sets in motion another ticking time-bomb; namely the budget itself. Section 57 of the Constitution states that if the Senate will not agree to any act which the House of Representatives has, passed then the Governor-General has the power to dissolve parliament. Section 57 has only been invoked on one occasion during the past 121 years and that was during the 1975 Constitutional Crisis. Nevertheless, that one event gave us the hint that contained within the Constitution itself, are the means to cause mayhem and malevolency.
If the House of Representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time.
- Section 57, Disagreement between the Houses, Australian Constitution Act 1900
The Morrison Government if it wanted to, could pass the budget in the House because it has the numbers and then never progress the bill to the Senate. The words of the Constitution don't actually specify whether or not the Senate needs to be presented with a bill, in order for them to fail to pass one. Since the only bill which the Government of the day absolutely must pass at all costs is Appropriation Bill No.1, then by holding this in their back pocket as a potential election trigger from opposition, may yet prove tempting. The chances of this happening are astronomically small but they are non-zero.
I think that we are hurtling towards a May election, which will give ample time for the imagineers and electioneers to repaint Mr Morrison into a government of sweetness and light and/or just enough sweetness and light to swing 0.9% of voters and maybe less, in a few key seats to retain government. The Budget in March, also gives Josh Frydenberg a stage to play the role of Treasurer and win his own seat again.
I would expect that the 2022 Budget will be like Mr Bayer handing out heroin lollies in the run up to the elections of oh so long ago. Expect a feel-good budget but where the expenses may themselves, come with ticking time bombs of their own.
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